Weak Demand on First Post-Holiday Trading Day; Both Trading and Investment Slack as Discount Edges Up [SMM North China Spot Copper]

Looking ahead to tomorrow, today's Shanghai social inventory recorded 139,400 mt, up 7,400 mt WoW from last Thursday; Jiangsu's inventory recorded 44,400 mt, up 2,500 mt WoW, showing a slight inventory buildup trend. According to SMM, the buildup was mainly due to arrivals from some domestic smelters combined with inflows of imported cargo, increasing supply-side pressure somewhat. In terms of market performance, intraday trading was overall sluggish. Suppliers quoted premiums from parity to a premium of 30 yuan/mt in early trading, but transactions failed to follow up, leading to successive downward revisions of quotes. By the second session, actual transactions for standard-quality copper had fallen to around a discount of 50-30 yuan/mt. Some suppliers were offloading cargo, further dragging down the center of market premiums. Overall demand was weak, with downstream users only making just-in-time procurement, lacking the willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, under the combined pressure of inventory buildup and increased willingness to sell among suppliers, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Tomorrow is expected to see spot prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract remain at current levels. Shanghai social inventory stood at 139,400 mt, up 7,400 mt WoW from the previous Thursday; Jiangsu inventory was 44,400 mt, up 2,500 mt WoW, indicating a mild inventory buildup. SMM attributes the buildup mainly to arrivals from some domestic smelters and inflows of imported cargo, adding pressure on the supply side. Spot market activity was sluggish throughout the day. Suppliers initially quoted premiums at parity to 30 yuan/mt but, with insufficient follow-through buying, subsequently cut offers several times. By the second session, standard-quality copper traded at discounts of 50–30 yuan/mt, with some suppliers liquidating cargo and further dragging the premium center lower. Overall demand was weak, as downstream users made only just-in-time procurement and showed limited willingness to chase higher prices. Given inventory pressure and a stronger willingness to sell among suppliers, spot prices are expected to hold at current levels.