SHFE tin opened lower and then rebounded slightly, fluctuating around 385,000, while downstream enterprises' restocking demand was released periodically [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Tin Midday Review, June 25, 2026

The SHFE tin market opened lower in the night session, with the most-traded contract opening at 386,000 yuan/mt and closing at 386,910 yuan/mt in the morning session, down 1.76%. On the LME, three-month tin was last at $50,490/mt, up 2.00%.

On the macro front:

(1) The US and Iran confirmed the resumption of technical talks in Switzerland on June 30. The US issued a 60-day general waiver license valid until August 21, allowing exports of Iranian crude oil and petrochemical products, while the first $6 billion of frozen Iranian overseas assets were released in phases for civilian procurement.

(2) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces would remain stationed indefinitely in the security zone in southern Lebanon. The US demand for a withdrawal within two weeks went unanswered, keeping regional risks of localized conflict alive.

In the spot market, as futures prices fell back into the 390,000 yuan/mt range yesterday and further declined, pent-up rigid-demand wait-and-see sentiment was released intensively after the absolute price pullback. Over the past two days, the market triggered successive procurement and restocking moves, warming trading sentiment. On the supplier side, some smelters are gradually showing a willingness to hold prices firm, while traders reported relatively active transactions, though slightly cooling from yesterday, as downstream enterprises' restocking demand has been partially met.

Overall, the earlier sustained strength of the US dollar index, together with the US Fed's hawkish tone, tightened global liquidity and weighed on industrial metals broadly. However, with short-term easing of the Strait of Hormuz blockade calming geopolitical fears and downstream enterprises stepping in to restock at bargains after domestic tin prices fell into the 380,000–390,000 yuan/mt range, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to stabilize and consolidate in the near term. Going forward, attention should remain on changes in overseas interest rate expectations and the progress of formal US-Iran consultations.