Overnight LME Copper Closes Lower as Bears Add Positions; Pre-Holiday Restocking Limited, Spot Premiums Under Pressure [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

2026.6.22 Monday
Futures: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $13,625.5/mt, dipped to $13,584.6/mt in early trading, then fluctuated upward to hit a high of $13,675.7/mt before closing at $13,587/mt, down 0.50%. Trading volume reached 10,500 lots, and open interest stood at 253,000 lots, an increase of 2,615 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bearish position building. Last Friday night, SHFE copper was closed for a holiday.
[SMM Copper Morning Briefing] News:
(1) Data from the China Customs online inquiry platform showed that China's imports of copper ores and concentrates in May 2026 reached 2,360,706.88 mt, up 0.39% MoM but down 1.74% YoY. China's imports from Chile came to 711,404.02 mt, up 1.10% MoM and down 2.90% YoY. Imports from Peru totaled 691,924.04 mt, up 19.15% MoM and up 11.98% YoY. On the export side, China's exports of copper ores and concentrates in May 2026 were 2,711.03 mt, up 19.71% MoM and surging 514.63% YoY. Exports to Malaysia amounted to 2,297.60 mt, up 1.50% MoM.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of June 18, the SHFE copper 2607 contract opened lower with a gap and then trended weakly. The opening price was 105,510 yuan/mt. After opening, prices gapped lower to 104,990 yuan/mt, then stabilized and edged up slightly to 105,200 yuan/mt. Subsequently, prices fell weakly, touching an intraday low of 104,460 yuan/mt before edging up toward the close to settle at 104,590 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between the front-month and next-month contracts ranged from 120 yuan/mt to 80 yuan/mt. The import profit margin on the front-month SHFE copper contract against the 2607 contract stood between a loss of 320 yuan/mt and a loss of 270 yuan/mt. On June 18, intraday copper prices edged down. Alongside pre-holiday restocking ahead of the Dragon Boat Festival, downstream dip-buying sentiment recovered somewhat, with both buying and selling sentiment indices rising 0.04 MoM, and trading of low-priced cargoes was moderate. However, suppliers quoted firm prices in early trading: standard-quality copper was quoted at parity to a premium of 30 yuan/mt, but was then continuously lowered to near parity. In the second session, some brands were already quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, reflecting that amid the ongoing decline in copper prices, suppliers' willingness to sell increased while downstream buyers were reluctant to chase higher prices, resulting in overall thin trading. On balance, pressured by high copper prices, today's Shanghai spot copper premiums against the SHFE 2607 contract are expected to remain at current levels or edge up slightly.
(2) Guangdong: On June 18, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt. The average price for Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,165 yuan/mt, down 335 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average for SX-EW copper was 105,005 yuan/mt, down 405 yuan/mt. Overall, end-use demand was lackluster, prompting suppliers to lower prices to sell, and overall trading activity weakened.
(3) Imported copper: On June 18, the warrant average price rose $2/mt from the previous trading day to $59/mt (range $54-68/mt); the B/L average price rose $1/mt from the previous trading day to $62/mt (range $55-69/mt); the EQ copper (CIF B/L) average price fell $1/mt from the previous trading day to $32/mt (range $28-36/mt), with quotations referencing cargoes arriving in mid to late June and early July.
(4) Secondary copper: On June 18, at 11:30, the futures closing price was 104,590 yuan/mt, down 730 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 20 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Secondary copper raw material prices fell 200 yuan/mt day-on-day; the secondary copper raw material sales sentiment index rose to 2.52, and the procurement sentiment index rose to 2.28. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,208 yuan/mt, down 506 yuan/mt day-on-day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 860 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, as the holiday approached, some secondary copper rod enterprises carried out normal stockpiling. Although secondary copper rod enterprises had prepared a certain amount of finished products, insufficient input invoices meant they could not guarantee issuing invoices within the same month after sales. As a result, downstream end-users' pre-holiday procurement was limited, and they mostly prioritized purchasing shaft furnace rods. Transactions in the secondary copper rod market were moderate.
Price: On the macro front, the market maintained hawkish expectations for the US Fed's policy outlook. As of last Friday, the market had fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike in September, and the US dollar remained relatively strong. Meanwhile, US-Iran negotiations continued to advance. The Iranian side stated that the draft oil sanctions waiver for Iran had been basically finalized, and US Vice President Vance also said the negotiations had made significant progress. However, Iran still indicated that the Strait of Hormuz had not yet reopened, and Trump threatened to take military action again if negotiations broke down, leaving uncertainties over the Middle East situation. Affected by rising expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes and wait-and-see sentiment in the market, the copper price center pulled back. On the fundamental side, supply side, after upstream deliveries under long-term contracts, spot inventory levels were not high, available supplies in the market were limited, and the overall condition remained tight. Demand side, downstream acceptance of current copper prices was limited, procurement was mainly need-based, and there was insufficient willingness to chase higher prices; overall consumption was weak. In summary, copper prices are expected to trade weakly today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not replace their independent judgment with this. Any decisions made by clients are not associated with SMM.]