US-Iran talks break down, the center of the most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuates downward [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Midday Tin Commentary for June 22, 2026

This morning, tin futures in and outside China fluctuated downward. The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 412,230 yuan/mt and closed the morning at 413,350 yuan/mt, down 1.53%. On the LME front, the three-month tin contract is currently tentatively quoted at $53,885/mt, up 0.88%.

On the macro front:

(1) On June 19, the originally scheduled in-person signing between the U.S. and Iran in Switzerland was canceled, and the two sides signed the ceasefire memorandum ahead of schedule via remote communication, leading to a brief opening of the strait. On the 20th, Iran re-closed the strait, citing sustained Israeli airstrikes and the failure of the U.S. to achieve a comprehensive ceasefire. On the 21st, the Swiss negotiations broke down, and the U.S. side threatened to potentially resume strikes.

(2) On June 22, the Russian Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 14.25%, less than the 50bp easing expected by the market. The bank stated that inflation still faces upside risks, and the pace of subsequent easing will remain cautious. Global monetary policy divergence among major economies is intensifying.

On the spot front, actual trading in the spot market remained subdued this morning. Although the center of futures prices declined, the absolute price stayed above 410,000 yuan. Most clients opted for tentative purchases by placing small pending orders.

Overall, it is expected that the most-traded SHFE tin contract will maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether there will be new engagement windows for the relevant geopolitical parties and whether downstream entities will see a periodic peak restocking demand after depleting their existing balances following the Dragon Boat Festival holiday.