[SMM Aluminum Flash News] UK Scrap Aluminium Sector Needs 25% Annual Growth to Meet Future Demand

New Fed Chair Warsh adjusted the Fed's communication framework during his first quarterly press conference, downplaying the emphasis on dot plot guidance and cautioning the market against overinterpreting policymakers' interest rate projections. He did not submit his own individual projections. Warsh stated that the current high inflation is sustained by three long-term factors—energy, tariffs, and housing—rather than a short-term one-off disturbance, and that price stability is the primary policy goal. Warsh did not lock in a fixed interest rate path, stressing that rates could be adjusted in either direction at every meeting and that the Fed would not proactively cut interest rates solely to boost the economy. Over the longer term, AI is expected to improve productivity and ease inflation pressures after 2027, becoming the core prerequisite for rate cuts. Warsh's overall stance was hawkish, further extinguishing near-term market expectations for rate cuts and driving a notable rise in market-implied probabilities of a year-end interest rate hike.

At the US Fed's June FOMC meeting, the federal funds rate was held unchanged at the 3.50%–3.75% range, with a unanimous 12–0 vote. The biggest revision in the meeting statement was the complete removal of forward guidance and wording with a dovish tilt, such as "additional adjustments," while the statement was also significantly shortened—marking a shift to a fully data-dependent policy framework. On the economic projections front, the 2026 GDP growth forecast was lowered to 2.2%, while the core PCE inflation forecast was raised to about 3.3%. The dot plot showed a notable hawkish shift, with the median rate for the end of 2026 rising to 3.8%; 9 officials projected rate hikes, while only 1 projected a cut. Notably, the Fed's new Chair, Warsh, did not submit a dot plot. The market read this as signaling that the easing cycle has come to an end and that rate hike risks have risen markedly.

US President Trump continued to pressure Iran, firmly stating that he would use the 60-day window provided after the launch of the US-Iran agreement to continue pushing forward negotiations, while still using economic pressure as an important bargaining chip. Trump mentioned that approximately 700 ships were currently transiting the Strait of Hormuz normally. He explicitly demanded that Iran must reach an agreement within the 60-day deadline; otherwise, it would face some unpleasant measures. However, Trump also believed that the situation might not necessarily deteriorate to that extent.