Space PV Stimulates Market Sentiment to Heat Up, PV Commercialization Faces a Long and Arduous Path [SMM Analysis]

SMM February 10 News:

On January 22, during the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, Musk strongly endorsed space-based PV and disclosed key capacity plans. Musk stated that SpaceX and Tesla are simultaneously advancing solar capacity expansion, aiming to achieve an annual solar manufacturing capacity of 100 GW within the next three years, to power ground-based data centers and space AI satellites. Following the visit of Musk's SpaceX team to Chinese PV enterprises earlier, market sentiment for PV further increased.

Space-based PV becoming a hot topic at the beginning of 2026 is no coincidence; it is fundamentally the result of the combined effect of "technological breakthroughs, capital speculation, and policy expectations". Firstly, technological breakthroughs have lowered the feasibility threshold for commercialization, which is the most critical reason—in the past, space-based PV relied on expensive gallium arsenide cells, with extremely high cost per watt. However, the application of HJT technology in 2026 has reduced the theoretical cost of space-based PV to one-third to one-fifth of the original cost, significantly lowering satellite deployment costs and advancing space-based PV from a "sci-fi concept" towards "practical implementation." Secondly, capital needs new hot topics for speculation—currently, involution is intensifying in traditional new energy sectors like PV and wind power, making it difficult for capital to find new high-growth tracks. As a cutting-edge field with immense potential, space-based PV naturally becomes a focus for capital speculation. Additionally, policy support and major players' layouts have also heightened market attention. At the 2026 Davos Forum, Musk unveiled a space energy plan, with SpaceX and Tesla jointly planning 200 GW of PV capacity for space applications; recently, the SpaceX team also began external recruitment for high-end module talent. The European Space Agency and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency are also advancing related projects, and China's 15th Five-Year Plan mentions explorations related to space energy, all of which further ignited market enthusiasm.

Currently, some PV enterprises have begun laying out R&D for space-based PV products. These enterprises focus on HJT and perovskite technologies, concentrating on short-term large-scale implementation and long-term technological breakthroughs. Among these, the HJT route currently focuses on overcoming product stability challenges in the extreme environment of space, promoting the adaptation of tandem technology for space energy scenarios and achieving commercial implementation, while simultaneously expanding the global space energy market. Regarding the perovskite tandem route, enterprises are gradually breaking through the long-term stability bottleneck in extreme space environments to meet the needs of space-based power stations. In addition, TOPCon technology is extending into the space PV field, and it is expected that space PV products will also show a trend of diversification in the future.

However, currently, space PV is still in its early stages. SMM believes that at present, the hype around the space PV theme outweighs practical implementation, but in the long term, space PV has strategic value and is not entirely a "castle in the air." On one hand, space PV can solve the intermittency and geographical limitations of ground-based PV, achieving 24-hour uninterrupted power generation, which holds significant strategic importance for the global energy transition. On the other hand, current space PV still faces many bottlenecks, such as low microwave transmission efficiency, difficulties in large-scale deployment, and huge capital investment, with technological breakthroughs still some distance away. Therefore, regarding space PV, we need to take a rational view and focus on its long-term potential.