Zimbabwe Strengthened Mineral Controls, Minor Metal Sector Rose Over 3%, Yunnan Germanium Industry, Jin Mo Shares Hit Daily Limit [SMM News Flash]

SMM May 28 update:

The minor metal sector strengthened on May 28. As of the close on May 28, the minor metal sector rose 3.44%. In terms of individual stocks: Sino-Platinum Metals, Yunnan Germanium Industry, and China Molybdenum hit the daily limit, while China Minmetals Rare Earth, China Tungsten And Hightech, China Northern Rare Earth, and China Rare Earth led the gains. On the news front: According to authoritative local media in Zimbabwe and Xinhua News Agency, the Zimbabwean government recently issued the Mineral Classification and Declaration, explicitly listing lithium and other high-value minerals as "critical minerals" subject to equity and export controls.The critical minerals involved include 14 types: lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, copper, rare earth elements, chromium, platinum group metals (PGMs), manganese, antimony, uranium, ruthenium, tungsten, and niobium.The market is focused on the impact of tightening resource-country policies on global supply chains, with sentiment warming for minor metal varieties such as antimony and tungsten.

Spot market

Tungsten

According to SMM pricing, on May 28, the average price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) was 415,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), up 1.22% from the previous trading day. Notably, after wolframite concentrates previously experienced a 61.88% decline over more than two months, driven by increased purchasing demand in the tungsten market, tungsten prices saw a rebound over two trading days. Currently, transactions in the tungsten concentrates market have improved, suppliers are bullish and hold back from selling, high-grade ore sees an upward shift in transaction center, while medium and low-grade ore circulates more but price increases appear lackluster. Downstream APT industry operating rates have slightly improved, but with limited new orders in the industry, smelters are cautious in restocking, with only small volumes of spot orders and large orders transacted in the market.

Regarding the tungsten outlook, in the short term, driven by orderly inventory destocking, the return of downstream rigid demand, and the formation of pricing consensus among industry leaders, the tungsten market has overall entered a consolidation-at-lows and recovery phase. Going forward, key attention should be paid to the execution of long-term contracts and the pace of end-use demand recovery. According to SMM surveys, downstream cemented carbide alloy enterprises have seen inventory drop to low levels, with expectations of rigid restocking demand, but influenced by the market not yet being fully stabilized, enterprises remain cautious in procurement, generally adopting a small-order purchasing model. If upstream raw material inventory continues to be cleared and supply-demand imbalances are alleviated, tungsten prices are expected to enter a stabilization and consolidation phase in June-July. In the medium and long-term, the gap in Q3 mining quota transitions may lead to a contraction in market supply, coupled with expectations of the traditional September-October peak season, the industrial supply-demand structure will continue to optimize, thereby providing bullish support for tungsten prices.

Rare Earths

After the rally on May 27, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide on May 28 fell 1.79% from the previous trading day, and inquiries in the rare earth oxide market were sluggish on the 28th. Affected by futures price fluctuations combined with periodic restocking by some major producers, Pr-Nd oxide prices fluctuated frequently this week. Upstream and downstream players continued their stalemate, with suppliers maintaining relatively firm offers overall, while downstream metal producers maintained a strong wait-and-see sentiment and showed low purchase willingness at high prices. Absent other news-driven factors, Pr-Nd oxide is expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term before any significant change in the supply-demand relationship.

Institutional Views

Huafu Securities noted in its research report dated May 24, when commenting on other minor metals: rare earths performed weakly, while tantalum pentoxide surged during the week. In the rare earth market, end-use demand from downstream magnetic material sectors remained weak, with no large-scale concentrated restocking observed — only sporadic rigid-demand small orders were transacted, and the demand side consistently failed to provide effective support for the market. Market sentiment fluctuated significantly, with frequent tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Overall industry confidence was insufficient, with a notable stalemate between upstream and downstream on offer and bid prices, and significant divergence within the industry regarding the outlook for subsequent market trends. On Friday, the market maintained a wait-and-see attitude, awaiting changes in the magnetic material restocking pace and a recovery in downstream demand. Individual stocks: for antimony, Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Huayu Mining are recommended; for molybdenum, China Moly, China Gold, and CMOC; for tungsten, Jiaxin International Resources, China Tungsten High-Tech, Xiamen Tungsten, and Zhangyuan Tungsten; for rare earths, China Rare Earth, China Northern Rare Earth, JL MAG Rare-Earth, and Xiamen Tungsten.

Kaiyuan Securities' mid-year 2026 investment strategy for the metals sector indicated: Copper: Supply side, most ex-China miners continued to face declining ore grades and recovery rates, with disruption factors persisting (Ivanhoe's Kamoa-Kakula copper mine, Codelco's El Teniente copper mine). Although China's domestic enterprises added incremental capacity, the overall increase was limited. Under optimistic assumptions, global supply growth from 2026 to 2027 may fall below 2%. Demand side, power demand in both China and the U.S. maintained high growth rates in H1, which is expected to contribute marginal incremental copper demand. Kaiyuan Securities believes that the supply-demand structural imbalance for copper will become more pronounced in 2026, supporting a rise in the copper price center. Lithium: Supply side, capital expenditure in the lithium industry contracted and supply discipline gradually took shape. Combined with frequent disruptions, supply elasticity in the lithium industry has declined notably compared to before. Meanwhile, energy storage demand sustained high prosperity, driving gradual improvement in the lithium demand structure and marginal easing of inventory pressure. Lithium prices are expected to see a phased recovery. Lithium enterprises with resource security, low-cost advantages, and integrated layouts are expected to see earnings recovery elasticity outperforming the industry average. Lithium mine and lithium chemicals companies with high resource self-sufficiency rates and strong cost control capabilities are worth watching. Tungsten: As a strategic metal where China holds a dominant position, tungsten ore supply is constrained by resource depletion, environmental protection, and other factors. Combined with the government's total volume control on tungsten ore mining, tungsten ore production release remains limited. Demand side, emerging sectors are boosting tungsten demand, which is expected to provide long-term support for tungsten prices.

According to a CITIC Securities research report, the current metals sector valuation remains at a reasonable level, with aluminum, copper, nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony, and gold valuations at relatively low levels, and a valuation rebound is still anticipated. Sector dividends have pulled back slightly, but the projected dividend yields of some individual stocks still exceed 5%. Looking ahead to 2026, liquidity shocks are expected to ease, supply disruptions are expected to occur frequently, and certain downstream sectors are expected to sustain relatively high prosperity. It is recommended to maintain a focus on allocation opportunities in lithium, copper, rare earths, strategic metals, aluminum, and gold sectors.