Futures: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,326/mt. At the beginning of the session, LME zinc edged lower and dipped to the intraday low of $3,306/mt. Prices then rose steadily, with the center lifting gradually to reach a high of $3,383/mt, before pulling back slightly at elevated levels. It ultimately closed higher at $3,358.5/mt, up $20/mt or 0.60%. Trading volume increased to 101,000 lots, while open interest decreased by 1,114 lots to 231,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2606 contract was closed for the Labour Day holiday.
Macro: The U.S. SEC proposed to allow publicly listed firms to replace quarterly reports with semi-annual reports. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates for the third consecutive time. Iraqi oil prices plunged sharply to attract buyers willing to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Rubio stated that the "epic fury" operation had ended. The U.S. Defense Secretary confirmed that the ceasefire remained in effect, while Iran stated it was still in a state of war. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi plans to visit China on May 6.
Spot:
Shanghai: Last Thursday, the refined zinc purchase sentiment in the Shanghai region was 1.8, and the shipments sentiment was 2.1. On the last trading day before the Labour Day holiday, the market was dominated by a holiday atmosphere. Few traders were making shipments, futures zinc prices fluctuated, downstream inquiries and purchases were limited, and overall trading activity was sluggish.
Guangdong: Last Thursday, the refined zinc purchase sentiment in the Guangdong region was 2.03, and the sales sentiment was 2.43. Last Thursday, the zinc price center pulled back somewhat, but affected by the Labour Day holiday, downstream enterprises were on holiday, and fewer traders were making shipments, leading to a decline in overall trading activity. Traders making shipments were scarce, transaction prices remained firm, and spot premiums edged up.
Tianjin: Last Thursday, the refined zinc purchase sentiment in the Tianjin region was 1.95, and the shipments sentiment was 2.23. Last Thursday, zinc prices continued to pull back. Downstream buyers mainly placed orders at prevailing prices, with limited cargo pick-up. As earlier stockpiling had been largely completed, overall purchase sentiment was subdued. Traders made few shipments, and mainstream traders quoted with contract rollover, with premiums edging up slightly. Overall market transactions were moderate.
Ningbo: Last Thursday was the last trading day before the Labour Day holiday. There were virtually no traders making shipments. Downstream alloy plants also planned to go on holiday successively. Earlier raw material stocking had been completed, and there were almost no inquiries or purchases. The market was dominated by a strong holiday atmosphere.
Inventory: On May 5, LME zinc inventory remained flat at 96,250 mt. According to SMM communications, as of April 30, domestic inventory decreased slightly.
Zinc price outlook: Overnight, LME zinc posted a bullish candlestick, with the 10-day moving average exerting resistance above and the 40-day moving average providing support below. U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth stated that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement remained in effect, easing concerns over a full-scale Middle East war following the UAE attack, which drove the LME zinc price center higher. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2606 contract was closed for the Labour Day holiday. Currently, bullish and bearish forces are intertwined in the market. China's zinc ingot inventory in May is expected to decline slightly MoM, but still maintained growth YoY. Meanwhile, TCs provided bottom support for prices. Combined with ongoing macro disturbances, the market is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.
Data Source Disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.
