Macro Industry Support Intertwined with Geopolitical Risks, Tin Prices Expected to See Short-Term Volatile Recovery [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes, May 6, 2026

On the macro front, global tech industry prosperity stayed high last week. Samsung Electronics reported quarterly results that far exceeded expectations, with strong performance in its semiconductor business. Meanwhile, Novosense disclosed rapid demand growth in automotive electronics and AI server power supply sectors. Emerging applications such as direct satellite-to-phone connectivity and smart cockpits continued to expand, providing some support for longer-term tin consumption expectations from macro sentiment. However, on the geopolitical front, oil tanker transit dynamics through the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran war added external uncertainties. Chinese market side, the tin market's overall supply-demand dynamics continued to be characterized by a tug-of-war. In April, smelter production remained largely stable, with no prominent conflicts on the ore side regarding raw materials. The demand side was in the tail end of the traditional peak season. Although elevated absolute prices suppressed downstream enterprises' willingness to stockpile in large volumes, rigid purchasing demand from sectors such as PV, electronics, and home appliances persisted, driving a modest inventory drawdown. Last week, tin prices retreated from highs. As the futures center shifted downward, combined with the objective rigid stockpiling demand ahead of the Labour Day holiday, the spot market trading atmosphere recovered notably. Downstream enterprises' dip-buying sentiment gradually intensified, and overall transaction volumes improved significantly compared with the prior period. Overall, short-term macro-industrial support and geopolitical risks coexist. The supply-demand fundamentals in China showed no significant surplus or shortage. After the rapid price adjustment, downstream restocking demand is expected to provide phased bottom support for prices. Tin prices are expected to mainly undergo a volatile recovery this week. Investors should closely monitor the sustainability of downstream consumption after the holiday, the evolution of macro sentiment, and external disruption factors such as ex-China geopolitical developments, and remain flexible in their responses.