Global Copper Inventories Hit New Highs, LME Copper and SHFE Copper Continue Overnight Gains [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Tuesday, February 10, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,025/mt, dipped to $12,975/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated upward and touched a high of $13,228/mt near the close, finally settling at $13,185/mt, a gain of 0.96%. Trading volume reached 15,200 lots, and open interest reached 327,000 lots, an increase of 2,466 lots from the previous trading day, overall performance indicated bulls increasing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper contract 2603 opened at 101,740 yuan/mt, touched a low of 101,280 yuan/mt early in the session, then the center of copper prices gradually moved upward, probing to 102,500 yuan/mt, finally settling at 102,450 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.93%. Trading volume reached 41,800 lots, and open interest reached 165,000 lots, a decrease of 4,251 lots from the previous trading day, overall performance indicated bears reducing positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Conference Minutes] News:
(1) Data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed that LME copper inventories continued to rebound last week, with the latest inventory level at 183,275 mt, rising to a near nine-month high. The latest data released by the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed that in the week of February 6, SHFE copper inventories continued to accumulate, with weekly inventories increasing by 6.83% to 248,911 mt, rising to an over ten-month high. INE copper inventories increased by 2,554 mt to 18,348 mt. Last week, COMEX copper inventories continued to accumulate, with the latest inventory level at 589,081 mt, again hitting a new phase high.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of February 9, the SHFE copper 2602 contract showed a pattern of opening higher with a gap and then pulling back slightly. The opening price was 101,900 yuan/mt. After opening, the price rose slightly, touching a high of 102,120 yuan/mt, then pulled back, fluctuating between 101,300 yuan/mt and 101,700 yuan/mt. By the close, the price was 101,300 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between the front-month and the next contract ranged between 390 yuan/mt and 270 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for the front-month SHFE copper contract ranged between a loss of 680 yuan/mt and 580 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, spot premiums/discounts are expected to face downward pressure. During the day, copper prices rose slightly, suppressing downstream demand, and actual market transactions were sluggish; coupled with some suppliers liquidating cargoes, spot premiums/discounts dropped slightly. Supply side, some price ratio-locked cargoes secured earlier when the import window was open arrived at ports for circulation; attention is needed on subsequent cargo arrivals. Short-term spot supply is expected to gradually increase. Demand side, as some downstream enterprises entered the holiday, and most top-tier enterprises had completed pre-holiday stockpiling, actual procurement demand showed a weakening trend.
(2) Guangdong: On February 9, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was at a discount of 180 yuan/mt to 30 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 105 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 260 yuan/mt to 220 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 240 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for Guangdong's #1 copper cathode was 101,395 yuan/mt, up 2,445 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for SX-EW copper was 101,260 yuan/mt, up 2,425 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, hit by the dual impact of a significant rise in copper prices and increased downstream holiday closures approaching the Chinese New Year long holiday, suppliers actively lowered prices for shipments yesterday, with overall trading being sluggish.
(3) Imported copper: On February 9, warrant prices were $30-46/mt, QP February, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $36-52/mt, QP March, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $14-26/mt, QP March, with the average price up $2/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in mid-February.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on February 9, the futures closing price was 101,300 yuan/mt, up 1,400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premiums/discounts were 35 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On February 9, copper scrap prices rose 1,300 yuan/mt WoW; Guangdong bare bright copper prices were 89,300-89,500 yuan/mt, up 1,300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,093 yuan/mt, down 34 yuan/mt WoW. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,320 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper scrap traders reported very few spot orders during the day, with shipments mainly consisting of long-term contracts yesterday.
Prices: On the macro front, the US Maritime Administration recommended US merchant ships avoid Iranian waters, and US officials commented on AI's impact on employment and weakening confidence in the US dollar. A weaker US dollar supported copper prices, but weak domestic demand limited upside room. Fundamentally, supply side, domestic copper arrivals decreased, while imported copper supply is expected to gradually increase; demand side, overall performance was weak due to early holidays at some downstream enterprises. Inventory side, as of Monday, February 9, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions across China increased slightly by 0.27% WoW from the previous Monday, but saw minor destocking from the previous Thursday. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]