By Zain Vawda
28 April 2026 at 07:18 UTC
Referenced assets
- Gold prices are experiencing a selloff driven by rising oil prices (fueling inflation concerns) and dampened sentiment regarding a potential US-Iran deal
- Technical analysis indicates an accelerating bearish momentum, with Gold breaking below both the 100-MA and 200-MA on the H4 chart
- The primary downside target for sellers is the $4601 support level, while a relief rally would face resistance between the $4650 and $4700 zones.
Gold prices experienced a selloff in the Asian session as Oil prices continue to rise, stoking inflation concerns. Markets continue to be driven by the potential for a deal between the US and Iran.
As the situation is fluid any change in perception around a deal is knocking sentiment. Rumors that President Trump is not happy with the recent proposal submitted by Iran. This has dampened sentiment early on Tuesday and barring any comments is likely to remain the status quo for the European session.
H4 Chart: Bearish Momentum Accelerates
The H4 timeframe paints a clear picture of a market struggling to find its footing. After failing to sustain a break above the $4800 handle, Gold has plummeted through key support levels.
Crucially, the price has slipped below both the 100-MA (Blue) and 200-MA (Orange). The rejection at the $4700 psychological level earlier in the session acted as the catalyst for the current leg lower.
With the RSI currently languishing in oversold territory (near 23), a short-term bounce wouldn't be surprising, but any recovery is likely to meet stiff resistance at the previous breakdown points.
Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, April 28, 2026
Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)
H1 Chart: Lower Highs and Structural Weakness
On the H1 chart, the trend is undeniably bearish. We have seen a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The aggressive sell-off during the most recent candles has pushed Gold toward the $4620 area, slicing through minor support zones with ease.
The gap between the price and the moving averages on this timeframe suggests the move is slightly overextended. However, the lack of a "bullish divergence" on the RSI indicates that the bears are still firmly in control. The $4601 level (highlighted by the purple horizontal line) stands as the primary target for sellers and the next major "line in the sand" for bulls.
Gold (XAU/USD) One-Hour Chart, April 28, 2026
Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)
M15 Tactical Analysis: Scenarios for the Upcoming Sessions
Looking at the intraday price action (M15), we see Gold attempting to stabilize after a vertical drop. Here is how I am framing the upcoming sessions:
The Bearish Scenario
If Gold fails to reclaim the $4640 - $4650 zone during a relief rally, sellers will likely reload. A break below the recent swing low at $4620 would open the trapdoor for a move toward the $4601 support level.
- Target: $4,601.
- Trigger: Rejection of the M15 50-MA or a break of $4,620.
The Bullish Scenario
For a meaningful intraday recovery, the bulls need to orchestrate a "stop-run" back above $4650. This would signal a potential "exhaustion gap" and could lead to a squeeze toward the $4680 area (near the H1 MAs).
- Target: $4,680 - $4,700.
- Confirmation: A 15-minute close above $4,655 with an RSI move back above 50.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Resistance: $4650, $4687, $4700.
- Support: $4620, $4601, $4580.
Gold (XAU/USD) M15 Chart, April 28, 2026
Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)
While the long-term trend for Gold has been constructive, the short-term technicals are screaming caution. The decisive break below $4700 has shifted the momentum, and until we see a structural shift on the H1 (a higher high), I remain wary of catching the falling knife.
