【SMM analysis】 Post-Holiday Lithium Carbonate Rally Lifts LFP Black Mass 500 Yuan/Li Pt; NMC Market Quiet

On the raw material front, this week lithium carbonate prices continued to climb, driven by supply-side disruptions intensifying the Q2 tightness expectation and substantial position building in deferred-month futures contracts. Nickel salt prices edged up slightly, while the cobalt salt market remained subdued and largely stable.

For different scrap types – NMC, lithium cobaltate, and LFP – on the LFP hydrometallurgical side: taking LFP cathode sheet black mass as an example, prices stood at 7,950–8,400 yuan per lithium point, up 500 yuan per lithium point from last Thursday's transaction levels. As lithium carbonate futures and spot prices kept rising this week, LFP black mass prices followed suit, and with some LFP recyclers increasingly tying pricing to futures, market sensitivity has strengthened further. On the NMC and lithium cobaltate side, NMC black mass prices edged up slightly. Post-Labor Day holiday trading was extremely thin, with most activity limited to indicative quotes; however, as nickel and cobalt salts continued to rise, some companies began to lift their offer prices. The coefficient for pure cobalt and high-cobalt scrap held steady. Despite the ongoing lithium salt rally, this was not a critical restocking window – downstream hydrometallurgical plants held ample inventory and demand remained slack, keeping prices stable.