SMM Analysis: Maintenance Recovery & Falling Zinc TC Shape May Refined Lead Output Outlook

SMM May 1 News: In April 2026, China's refined lead production continued its modest upward trend, rising 1.22% month-on-month and 3.01% year-on-year. For the January-April 2026 period, cumulative refined lead output increased by 4.39% year-on-year.

According to sources, refined lead smelters experienced a mix of production resumption and maintenance shutdowns in April, resulting in relatively stable overall output. Smelters in regions such as Southwest and Central China resumed production after completing maintenance. Coupled with the concentrated arrival of imported lead in April, some smelters received supplementary imported lead bullion, pushing output higher than in March. However, in mid-April, several medium-to-large smelters in East China and Southwest China experienced equipment failures, leading to unplanned maintenance that offset a portion of the month's supply increase. As a result, April's output only posted a modest gain.

Looking ahead to May, as the number of smelters resuming production after maintenance increases, refined lead output is expected to expand further.

On the one hand, medium-to-large smelters in East China, Southwest China, and other regions will continue to ramp up after completing maintenance, with production plans set higher than in April. Meanwhile, some small-to-medium smelters that have been idled for an extended period are planning to resume production. These two factors will be the main sources of May's output increase.

On the other hand, some small-to-medium smelters in Northwest and Northeast China have scheduled new maintenance shutdowns. Some have already suspended operations since late April, while others are still running, with the timing of halts depending on equipment conditions — the impact on May's refined lead output is expected to be limited.

Additionally, since April, zinc concentrate treatment charges (TCs) have been falling continuously, dropping below 1,000 yuan per ton. This has dampened smelters' production enthusiasm. In particular, for smelters primarily focused on zinc production with lead as a by-product, the reduction in zinc output may indirectly affect lead output.

In summary, SMM expects refined lead output in May to increase by 5% month-on-month.