【SMM Analysis】Weekly Review of Indonesian Nickel Market - Mar 27

Nickel Ore

Indonesian domestic nickel ore prices have risen significantly increase this week. For the first half of March, the Indonesian Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM) was set at $17.329/dmt, an increase of 1.32%. However, according to SMM data, average premiums has increased for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $36, $40, and $40.5/wmt, respectively, with 1.6% grade reaching a delivered price of $67.6–$74.6/wmt. This strengthening of premiums reflects both the release of restocking demand from smelters and pessimistic expectations regarding RKAB quota reductions. Simultaneously, the delivery price for 1.2% grade limonite has edged up to $25–$27/wmt.

• Pyrometallurgical Ore:

From a supply and demand perspective, Sulawesi is transitioning into the dry season; Konawe has reached optimal production levels, while Morowali is slightly experiencing thunderstorms in this week. However, Halmahera's region is slightly stable. Currently, The market is facing a clear trend of declining ore grades. While some NPI smelters have begun accepting grades of 1.45% or lower, the supply of high-grade saprolite remains tight. As of mid-March, the ESDM has approved approximately 100 million tons of RKAB quotas. The remaining 160 to 170 million tons are expected to be processed by the end of March. However, due to the Eid al-Fitr (Lebaran) holidays (March 18–24), approval progress is expected to lag, exacerbating short-term supply tightness. Faced with resource uncertainty, some smelters have increased trade bonuses to secure raw materials. Transactions for low-grade saprolite are emerging at fixed prices lower than high-grade ores. Conversely, Limonite prices remain low due to a tailings dam landslide at a major MHP project, which has forced production lines to operate at low loads, hindering demand recovery. However, Limonite prices are expected to eventually follow Saprolite upward due to new project stockpiling and external island demand.

• Hydrometallurgical Ore

Hydrometallurgical ore is relatively sufficient, a tailings dam landslide at an MHP project in a certain industrial park has forced related production lines to operate at low loads, leading to a temporary weakness in demand. Because miners currently secure higher profit margins from saprolite, they are less inclined to produce and sell limonite. To counter this reluctance, and to navigate ongoing RKAB approval uncertainties, fulfill the stockpiling needs of newly commissioned projects, and meet rising demand from outer islands, smelters have been compelled to raise limonite bids to incentivize miners to release their lower-grade ore. Consequently, hydrometallurgical ore prices are projected to follow the upward trajectory of pyrometallurgical ore and remain at elevated levels."

On the policy front, although rumors regarding the implementation and delayed release of the new tax policy persist, the specific execution details remain under internal review by relevant ministries. While operational details for specific products like NPI and MHP still await final inter-ministerial confirmation, current policy winds suggest that the era of duty-free exports for Indonesian intermediate nickel products may soon be coming to an end.

Looking ahead, the continuous tightening of Indonesian policies is expected to open up further upside potential for nickel ore prices and exert a profound impact on the cost structure of the global nickel supply chain.

Market Outlook: Due to the overall delay in RKAB approvals, upcoming nickel export tax/windfall tax policy, probable nickel benchmark price changes, as well as miners are unable to produce with their "old quota" in April, nickel ore prices in next month are expected to remain resilient with a strong "easy to rise, hard to fall" trend.

Nickel Pig Iron

"High-Grade NPI Under Short-Term Pressure Amid Upstream-Downstream Tug-of-War"

The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price dropped by RMB 6.7 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1083.5 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index decreased by USD 1.38 USD per nickel unit to an average of USD 136.9 per nickel unit. 

Overall, the high-grade NPI market operated steadily. After transaction centers stabilized, the market entered a tug-of-war between upstream and downstream participants, leaving prices under short-term pressure.

On the supply side, domestic nickel ore news has seen continuous disruptions. Upstream quotes were initially firm due to cost support; however, the market supply of scrap steel has increased significantly. Under the dual suppression of sluggish end-user demand and the economic advantage of scrap steel, upstream quotes for high-grade NPI have gradually weakened.

In the stainless steel spot market, absolute social inventory levels remain high. Steel mills are maintaining high production schedules, leading to significant shipping pressure. Although there is some support on the cost side, the mills face considerable cost pressure themselves, and the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap has become prominent. Consequently, their acceptance of high-priced ferronickel is low, and their procurement attitude remains cautious. Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a weak but stable trend. In summary, NPI prices will remain in an upstream-downstream tug-of-war in the short term, with upside price pressure driven by competition from scrap steel and the limited purchasing willingness of stainless steel mills.