Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,909.5/mt. After the opening, prices fell rapidly, hitting a low of $1,899/mt. Entering the European trading session, LME lead fluctuated upward and touched a high of $1,920/mt. After repeated tussles at high levels, it pulled back. Near the close, LME lead briefly consolidated at $1,908/mt and finally closed at $1,911.5/mt. It posted a small bullish candlestick, up $13/mt, or 0.68%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,505 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices fluctuated higher, touching 16,570 yuan/mt. Thereafter, lead prices plunged rapidly after 22:30, gradually falling below the key support level of 16,505 yuan/mt. Near the close, prices fluctuated rangebound in the 16,490-16,505 yuan/mt range, hitting a low of 16,480 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,490 yuan/mt. It posted a small bearish candlestick, down 5 yuan/mt, or 0.03%.
On the macro front:
1. The US side continued to urge Ukraine to give up Donbas in exchange for security guarantees. 2. The US Secretary of the Interior said that 100 million dollars in physical gold was brought back through the visit to Venezuela. 3. Putin signed a decree under which Russia will restrict gold bar exports starting in May. 4. Iran said that at the current stage, neither a ceasefire nor negotiations are feasible. 5. China accelerated the establishment of a long-term care insurance system.
Spot fundamentals:
SHFE lead showed a fluctuating rebound trend, and suppliers shipped in line with market conditions. Warehouse inventory in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai declined, and circulating cargoes decreased relatively. Meanwhile, quotations for cargoes self-picked up from production site from primary lead smelters differed relatively little from yesterday, with ex-factory quotations in mainstream producing areas at premiums of 30-120 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price; as for secondary lead, circulating cargoes in the market were limited, and smelters held prices firm for shipments, with ex-factory quotations for secondary refined lead at premiums of 25-75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises showed slight divergence in procurement, with some waiting for new-month long-term contract lead ingots and some purchasing as needed, among which some warrant cargoes saw slightly better transactions.
Inventory: As of March 25, lead inventory decreased by 200 mt, or 0.07%, to 283,150 mt. As of March 23, SMM social inventory of lead ingots across five regions had pulled back from previous high levels.
Today's lead price forecast:
Supply side: quotations for cargoes self-picked up from production site from primary lead smelters held steady, with mainstream producing areas at premiums of 30-120 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price; secondary lead smelters held prices firm for shipments, and spot circulating cargoes tightened. Demand side: downstream procurement sentiment diverged, with both waiting for new-month long-term contracts and purchase as needed coexisting, while warrant cargoes were relatively more favored in transactions. SMM expects lead prices to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term, with downside supported by firm spot prices and limited room for declines; whether prices can break upward will depend on close tracking of downstream procurement and restocking pace.
![SHFE Lead Rebounded Slightly After an Intraday Dip and Closed with a Small Bearish Candlestick [Lead Futures Brief Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/qnyHQ20251217171721.jpeg)
![LME Lead Bottomed Out, While SHFE Lead Retreated After Rapid Rise and Consolidated [SMM Lead Morning Brief]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/EhsCj20251217171721.jpeg)
