Macro Situation Temporarily Eases, Expectations Fade, SHFE Tin Contract Comes Under Pressure Again [SMM Tin Midday Commentary]

On March 26, 2026, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remained difficult to ease in the short term, macro sentiment shifted again, dragging tin prices under pressure at this morning’s open. The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed the morning session at 349,700 yuan/mt, while LME three-month tin was last reported at USD 44,280/mt.

On the macro front, the market’s optimistic expectations for easing tensions in the Middle East faded somewhat, and the rapid shift in sentiment created phased pressure on risk assets and the nonferrous sector, causing tin futures to come under pressure and pull back. Current spot circulation in the market remained generally tight, and cargo-holding traders showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, with quotes generally maintained at relatively high premiums. However, most downstream enterprises had already completed phased restocking earlier, and in the face of current high premiums and futures fluctuations, they mostly stayed on the sidelines. Trading in the market was relatively sluggish this morning, with only a small volume of rigid-demand transactions concluded.

Short term, against the backdrop of repeated swings in macro sentiment, tin prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound. Going forward, close attention still needs to be paid to developments in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East: if tensions continue to ferment or escalate, intensifying macro pressure may prompt tin prices to retest lower levels in search of bottom support.