SMM Tin Morning Brief for July 9, 2026:
The most-traded SHFE tin 2608 contract opened lower in the night session and hovered in a sideways consolidation pattern, closing at 406,260 yuan/mt, down 1.43%. Open interest decreased by 1,683 lots to 40,000 lots.
Macro:
(1) NVIDIA (NVDA.O) shares have notably underperformed the broader chip sector so far this year. Bank of America views this as a more attractive buying opportunity rather than a warning signal. Analyst Vivek Arya acknowledged there are factors worrying investors in the market but believes the market has overreacted. Rising HBM component costs have sparked concerns about gross margins, but Arya argues investors are overestimating this pressure while underestimating NVIDIA’s pricing power, scale advantages, and approximately $119 billion in supply chain commitments. He expects NVIDIA can offset the impact from HBM costs because pricing for the next-generation Rubin platform may be significantly higher than the current Blackwell product line, thereby keeping gross margins in the mid-70% range. The second major investor concern stems from custom chip competition, such as the TPU co-designed by Google and Broadcom. Arya believes this concern is also exaggerated. Google’s TPU has existed for over a decade, during which NVIDIA’s GPU revenue has grown 700-fold. In the long term, NVIDIA will still capture 65% to 70% of hyperscaler AI infrastructure spending. Additionally, NVIDIA’s forward P/E ratio currently stands at approximately 18.69x, near half the 10-year average and close to an 11-year low.
(2) According to foreign media reports, people familiar with the matter revealed that AI chip startup Positron is in talks for a two-stage financing round, seeking to raise approximately $750 million. Positron, which focuses on R&D for energy-efficient inference chips used to run AI models, is one of the many firms seeking to challenge NVIDIA’s dominance. The first stage of this financing round is expected to value the company at $3.5 billion, while the second stage could see a valuation of roughly $5 billion. If completed, the company's valuation will have more than tripled in just five months. Positron boasts a strong investor lineup, including Valor Equity Partners, Atreides Management, and DFJ Growth, as well as Arm and the Qatar Investment Authority.
(3) StarNeto announced it expects H1 2026 net profit of 90 million to 120 million yuan, up 665.92%–854.56% YoY. The main driver for the growth in net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm is the strong performance of the company’s external investment projects in H1 2026, with investment income growing YoY, effectively supplementing current profit and offsetting operating losses for the period. Preliminary calculations estimate the amount affecting current profit at approximately 140 million yuan.
Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: The tin ore supply remains tight, but marginal improvement signals are increasing. In July, most smelters prioritized stable production. (2) Demand side: The traditional off-season effect deepened, with just-in-time demand support and high-price suppression coexisting. Downstream purchasing was relatively cautious, with buying based on orders.
Spot market: Yesterday, the overall spot tin ingot market exhibited a pattern of "steady premiums, mediocre trading, and just-in-time restocking." Smelters maintained a strong willingness to hold prices firm. Transaction side remained weak: smelters held prices firm and sold, with deals constrained by slight futures premiums. Downstream solder sector was in the traditional consumption off-season, primarily engaging in just-in-time procurement.
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