May 26, 2026
The gold market is currently putting investors through a real stress test: Since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict in late February, the spot price has fallen by about 14%. Oil price shocks, renewed inflation fears, and a strong US dollar are taking a massive toll on the precious metal. But while short-term capital is flowing out, major banks like JPMorgan continue to see entry opportunities in the medium term.
Toxic macro environment is holding investors back
The steep rise in oil prices has dashed hopes for rapid interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve for the time being. For gold, the combination of persistent inflation, rising bond yields, and a robust dollar is creating strong headwinds.
Market data reflects this as well: institutional investors’ buying interest has almost completely dried up. Aggregated open interest and volume data for COMEX gold futures are weak, ETF inflows are stagnating, and the net positioning of speculative capital (“managed money”) remains at low levels. Quite simply, too little fresh capital is flowing into the market.
Analysts adjust—but the trend remains intact
Major banks have now reacted to this short-term buyer’s strike. On Sunday, JPMorgan lowered its average gold price forecast for 2026 from $5,708 to $5,243 per ounce. Shortly before that, ANZ had already revised its year-end target downward to $5,600.
What is remarkable, however, is not the adjustment itself, but what remains unchanged: the fundamental long-term assessment.
The $6,000 scenario for 2026
Despite the current dip, JPMorgan is sticking to a price target in the $6,000 range for the end of 2026. The analysts’ reasoning: Once the geopolitically driven energy shock subsides and inflation data stabilizes, monetary policy pressure will ease.
If this scenario materializes—expected to begin in the second half of 2026—the path will be clear for a double wave of demand: Institutional investors will return to the market, while central banks are likely to resume their gold accumulation.
Conclusion: The gold market is undergoing a painful but logical transition phase. The recent downward revisions to forecasts merely alter the timeline, not the fundamental direction. Those who weather the current macroeconomic turbulence are positioning themselves for the next major demand cycle.
Source：https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-why-banks-are-targeting-usd6-000-despite-a-14-price-drop
