[Platinum & Palladium Price Review and Forecast]
This week (July 3 – July 9), platinum and palladium prices retreated after rapid rise with the price center moving lower, ending the week lower overall. On July 3, driven by the much weaker-than-expected US June non-farm payrolls data, market expectations for rate hikes cooled rapidly, and platinum and palladium surged sharply in a single day, with the most-traded platinum contract rising 3.27% to hit the week's high. However, market sentiment gradually faded. Additionally, the renewed US-Iran conflict flared up again, as US forces struck Iranian military targets for several consecutive days, and the first meeting minutes after Warsh took office were released, showing that the AI investment frenzy would significantly influence interest rate decisions. The minutes were broadly interpreted as hawkish. Futures prices for platinum and palladium fell continuously starting Monday, extended losses on Tuesday, recovered slightly on Wednesday before weakening again on Thursday, overall forming a retreat-after-rapid-rise pattern of "one day of gains and four days of declines," with the weekly price center clearly shifting lower. The most-traded platinum futures contract on GFEX reached a high of 415.85 yuan/g, dipped to a low of 392 yuan/g, and closed at 400.45 yuan/g on July 9; palladium weakened in tandem, with the most-traded contract hitting a high of 309.7 yuan/g, a low of 290.3 yuan/g, and closing at 295.25 yuan/g on July 9, falling more than platinum.
On the spot side, mainstream spot premiums for platinum and palladium remained around parity with GFEX futures. Spot premiums for palladium were slightly higher than those for platinum, but overall consumption stayed weak, downstream enterprises held strong wait-and-see sentiment, and actual transactions leaned towards the lower end of quotes, mostly around a discount of 1 yuan/g to parity with the most-traded GFEX contract. Overall, spot premiums for platinum and palladium were relatively stable and did not show significant fluctuations alongside futures.
Looking ahead, macro headwinds returned this week. Combined with a lack of strong short-term fundamental support, elevated US bond yields and the US dollar index will continue to limit upside room for platinum and palladium, and they are expected to continue witnessing wild swings and consolidation. For spot premiums, market premiums are likely to edge up in the near term as the August contract delivery approaches.
[Platinum & Palladium Weekly Data Review]
In overseas exchange inventories, platinum extended its one-sided destocking trend, with inventories falling to about 420,000 ounces by end-June, a decline of over 40% from the high at the start of the year. Palladium inventories saw a slight destocking, with current inventories still at a high for the past year. In terms of imports, platinum imports edged up in May, with the overall level similar to that of the same period last year, while palladium imports pulled back slightly, but the overall level remained significantly higher than from 2023 to 2025.
[Platinum Group Compounds]
Chloroplatinic acid prices declined continuously this week from 166 yuan/g on Monday to close at 164.5 yuan/g on Friday, losing 1.5 yuan/g for the week, a decline of about 0.90%. Palladium chloride prices were also under pressure. It opened at 190 yuan/g on Monday and closed at 186.5 yuan/g on Friday, down 3.5 yuan/g for the week, a decline of about 1.84%. This week, downstream players made just-in-time procurement but no large-scale shipments, and trading was relatively stable.
![Platinum prices fell under pressure intraday, while spot market consumption recovered slightly, with normal transactions [SMM Daily Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/gpWpd20251217171734.jpeg)
![Geopolitical concerns resurface, platinum consolidates, spot market consumption remains poor [SMM Daily Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/qopTu20251217171736.jpg)
