[SMM Daily Chromium Review] Futures Rose While the Spot Market Remained Temporarily Stable, with Limited Adjustment in the Ferrochrome Market

On March 26, 2026, high-carbon ferrochrome quotations were unchanged, with Inner Mongolia high-carbon ferrochrome quoted at 8,600-8,700 yuan/mt (50% metal content); low- and micro-carbon ferrochrome quotations were raised, with Inner Mongolia low-carbon ferrochrome quoted at 13,900-14,000 yuan/60 mt (50% metal content).

The ferrochrome market was generally stable during the day. Sentiment over steel mill tenders rising less than expected was basically fully digested, and the market returned to rationality, focusing on adjustments in supply and demand fundamentals. Demand side, downstream stainless steel mills mainly consumed existing inventory during the month, with limited inquiry and procurement activity, and ferrochrome transactions and shipments were relatively stable. However, considering the boost from the peak consumption season of “Golden March and Silver April,” the stainless steel market recovered, planned production rebounded to high levels, and follow-up rigid demand for ferrochrome will provide support. On the supply side, imported ferrochrome remained at low levels, and China ferrochrome producers mostly had production cut plans due to the risk of losses, with supply expected to tighten. Overseas chrome ore prices continued to rise, while China spot quotations held steady at highs. Raw material costs for ferrochrome climbed, production pressure increased significantly, ferrochrome producers' profits were squeezed, and production plans were adjusted. Overall, the ferrochrome supply-demand relationship gradually returned from the earlier surplus to a tight balance. Ferrochrome prices are expected to remain firm in the short term and may still have room to rise further.

Raw material side, on March 26, 2026, chrome ore prices were unchanged. Tianjin Port 40-42% South African concentrate; 40-42% Turkish lumpy chrome ore; 48-50% Zimbabwean concentrate were unchanged from the previous trading day's quotations; on the CIF futures side, the weekly quotation for 40-42% South African concentrate rose to $318/mt.

The chrome ore market was temporarily stable during the day, while futures and spot prices diverged. On the spot side, steel mill tender prices came in below expectations, coupled with the impact of ferrochrome plants planning to cut production, resulting in insufficient market confidence. At the same time, port inventory increased to a high level in recent years, traders faced greater shipment pressure and were willing to sell off cargo at lower prices, so chrome ore prices may decline. However, mainstream chrome ore supply remained tight, so traders holding spot cargo still had sentiment to hold prices firm. On the futures side, expectations for easing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East may push ocean freight rates lower as the international situation adjusts, and the upward momentum in overseas chrome ore futures slowed. The weekly quotation from the leading overseas South African ore mine for 40-42% South African concentrate rose by $3 to $318/mt; the quotation for Zimbabwean concentrate held steady at $375/mt; the quotation for Turkish concentrate remained at $395/mt. Considering that downstream demand from the ferrochrome sector may weaken, China traders had some fear of high prices and remained cautious in purchases, with recently activity in concluded deals being average. The chrome ore market is expected to remain temporarily stable in the short term, while further attention should be paid to the implementation of production cut plans on the ferrochrome side and the impact of changes in the international situation.