Long-term contract delivery is dominant, spot market activity is sluggish [SMM North China Spot Copper]

Looking ahead to tomorrow, copper prices edged up slightly today. Although buying and selling sentiment rebounded, it remained weak overall. In the morning session, suppliers quoted from parity to a premium of 10 yuan/mt, but actual transactions were sluggish. In the second session, prices were continuously lowered to around a discount of 20 yuan/mt before deals could be concluded, reflecting downstream users' limited acceptance of current copper prices and reluctance to chase higher prices. The inter-month Contango spread widened slightly but stayed in the range of around 100 yuan/mt, with suppliers showing relatively strong willingness to hold prices firm. Close attention should be paid to warrant outflows tomorrow. If there is a concentrated release, it will put pressure on spot premiums; if outflows are limited, then, supported by the spread structure, there is limited room for the discount to widen further. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between weak demand and uncertainty over warrant outflows, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, today copper prices edged up. Buying and selling sentiment rebounded but remained relatively weak overall. Suppliers quoted from parity to a premium of 10 yuan/mt in early trading, but actual trading was sluggish. In the second session, quotes were continuously lowered to around a discount of 20 yuan/mt before deals could be concluded, reflecting limited acceptance of current copper prices by downstream buyers and insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. The Contango spread between monthly contracts widened slightly but remained around 100 yuan/mt, and suppliers showed relatively strong willingness to hold prices firm. Close attention should be paid to the outflow of warrants tomorrow. If released in concentration, it will weigh on spot premiums; if the outflow is limited, then supported by the spread structure, there is limited room for further decline in the discount. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between weak demand and uncertain warrant outflows, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.

Sulfur physical delivery prices kept the downward trend this week. Market sources say that on June 15, the sulfur transaction price had fallen to yuan 9,500/mt, and on June 16, it rebounded slightly to yuan 9,600/mt, but compared to the peak transaction price of yuan 11,985/mt last Thursday (June 11), the gap has already exceeded yuan 2,000/mt. Today (June 17),SMM EXW Shandong Sulfur were further reduced, to a range of yuan 9,507–10,000/mt, with the average price reported at yuan 9,753.5/mt, down yuan 600/mt from yesterday, and the decline widened markedly. Looking back at recent movements, since June 5, the sulfur price started to rally rapidly from yuan 8,075/mt and on June 8 surged to yuan 9,625/mt, thereafter climbing to last week’s peak before pulling back quickly, causing market sentiment to take a sharp downturn. Currently, downstream buying sentiment is weak. Faced with the rapid price decline, buyers are showing strong wait-and-see sentiment, only maintaining purchases for rigid demand while pushing for lower prices. Support from major downstream demand—phosphate fertilisers and sulphuric acid—is insufficient, and the sulfur market still faces further downward pressure in the near term.