Bullish and bearish factors intertwined to cause disruptions, and the most-traded SHFE tin contract saw wild swings intraday [SMM Tin Brief]

July 9, 2026 Tin Daily Review

The tin market in and outside China showed wild swings throughout the day, followed by a rapid rise in the afternoon. The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 408,000 yuan/mt, then rapidly rose in the afternoon, hitting a high of 418,350 yuan/mt, and closed in the afternoon at 416,230 yuan/mt, up 0.99%. On the LME side, the three-month tin contract in London also strengthened after consolidation, currently trading at $53,480/mt, up 2.48%.

On the macro front:

(1) On the evening of July 8, the US Fed released the minutes of the June FOMC meeting, in which most officials warned of upside inflation risks, and a few members supported a rate hike in June at that time. If prices continue to rebound, there is room to resume rate hikes in September. CME data showed that the probability of a September rate hike rose to 51.5%, with US Treasury yields moving higher across the board.

(2) The US military completed a new round of strikes on Iran on local time July 8, aiming to further degrade Iran's ability to attack merchant ships and innocent civilian mariners in the Strait of Hormuz, hitting approximately 170 military targets over two consecutive days.

In the spot market, transactions today showed a phased characteristic as futures prices fluctuated. Throughout the day, the futures market maintained a pattern of wild swings. When intraday prices dipped to around 400,000 yuan/mt, spot transactions recovered slightly from yesterday, with some enterprises showing tentative purchasing intentions and making small-volume purchases. However, as futures prices surged in the afternoon, buying momentum cooled rapidly in the buyer market.

Overall, the current tin market trend remains highly tied to macro sentiment. However, from a fundamental perspective, the release of downstream rigid demand during the previous price correction consumed some spot supply, keeping low inventory and weak transactions in a stalemate. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to maintain a consolidation pattern.