[SMM Analysis] Weak Trading Sentiment but Strong Cost Support, Ternary Cathode Precursor Prices Edged Up

This week, prices in the second-life battery market were generally stable, while the market's structural divergence remained evident. Cost side, trends in various raw materials diverged, with overall costs rising slightly. Lithium carbonate prices increased, pushing up battery cell recycling and processing costs; nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate prices remained stable, easing one-sided cost pressure, and costs edged up mildly over the week. Supply side, supply of popular energy storage battery cell models was tight, with limited spot availability; conventional models were sufficiently available, and no broad-based shortage emerged in the market. Demand side, the gap between energy storage and the EV market remained wide. Demand in the EV sector stayed sluggish, with low purchasing enthusiasm and insufficient support for prices; energy storage demand remained the mainstay of the market, with stable rigid demand. However, prices were currently at high levels, downstream purchasing became more rational, willingness to purchase at high prices declined, and further price increases were currently facing resistance.

The plan proposes that by 2028, the capacity and shipments of products across the entire AI server industry chain will achieve leapfrog growth, and the global market share of products in key areas such as core chips, memory, printed circuit boards (PCBs), power supply and energy storage, optical modules, and passive components will increase significantly; breakthroughs will be achieved in core chips and key products, a group of “specialized, sophisticated, distinctive, and innovative” enterprises and “single-product champion” enterprises with strong technological capabilities and significant market advantages will be cultivated in a tiered manner, and an industrial echelon featuring the coordinated development of large, medium-sized, and small enterprises will take shape.

This week solid-state battery material prices showed structural divergence: sulphide-route LPSC and lithium sulphide prices declined, while oxides remained stable. On the industrial side, the Taiblue–Yadea two-wheeler semi-solid-state battery achieved commercial rollout; BTR’s solid electrolyte orders surged; and WELION New Energy’s 2 billion yuan project was sited in Huadu, Guangzhou. Upstream price cuts resonated with downstream deployment, accelerating the commercialisation process.