[SMM Energy Storage Battery Cell Market Weekly Review 7.02] Prices Firm Up Recently, Year-End Capacity Hopes for a New Phase

The energy storage battery cell market remained strong this week. In terms of pricing, mainstream order transaction prices for 314Ah energy storage cells at the 100-megawatt hour level held steady at 0.36-0.37 Yuan/Wh, while newly signed orders for 100Ah cells were around 0.45 Yuan/Wh. Although upstream lithium carbonate prices pulled back from May, battery cell prices have yet to follow suit, constrained by the current tight supply-demand balance for 314Ah cells and the inherent time lag in industry chain price transmission. In terms of profitability, the industry's average gross margin currently stands at around 10%. For smaller-scale, short-term spot orders lacking long-term cooperation, buyers often need to offer a gross margin above 15% to successfully pick up goods. Looking ahead to July and August, if lithium carbonate prices stabilize at the June average, battery cell prices may see a slight downward adjustment as 314Ah capacity gradually expands.

From a production and medium-to-long-term planning perspective, nationwide battery cell production reached 82 GWh in June and is expected to maintain steady MoM growth of about 4% in July. During the transitional period of July and August, capacity enhancement will rely mainly on the ramp-up of existing production lines, while the realization of large-scale new capacity must wait until after the end of Q3. Notably, to address the "export rush" expectations triggered by potential changes to the year-end VAT rebate policy, major enterprises are accelerating their capacity expansion. In H2 this year, over 40 GWh of new annual 314Ah capacity is expected to be concentrated into the market. Meanwhile, capacity for ultra-large cells of 500Ah and above is also broadly planned for intensive release from late Q3 to Q4. At that point, driven by a strong resonance of expanding supply and surging demand, the energy storage battery cell market may kick off a new year-end rally of rising volumes and prices.

SMM New Energy Research Department

Wang Cong 021-51666838

Ma Rui 021-51595780

Feng Disheng 021-51666714

Lyu Yanlin 021-20707875

Zhang Haohan 021-51666752

Wang Zihan 021-51666914

Wang Jie 021-51595902

Xu Yang 021-51666760

Chen Bolin 021-51666836

Yang Le 021-51595898

Li Yisha 021-51666730

Huang Chencong 021-51595860