Silver Prices Fall Under Pressure as US-Iran Conflict Escalates and US Fed Remains Divided [SMM Daily Review]

Today, SMM's Ag (T+D) 10 a.m. fix on the gold exchange was 14,199 yuan/kg, with a premium/discount range of TD -5 to +15 yuan/kg, averaging +5 yuan/kg.

On the macro front, in the early hours of Beijing time on the 9th, the US military launched a large-scale strike against Iran in response to its attacks on merchant ships, escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Meanwhile, the US Fed meeting minutes released early showed a few officials deemed a June rate hike necessary but ultimately supported keeping rates unchanged, while the majority backed shortening the statement by removing the "easing bias" language. Officials' views on the interest rate outlook diverged significantly, with both interest rate hikes and cuts possible. The general trend of precious metals remained under downward pressure.

In the spot market, some suppliers began offering at discounts today, with overall demand remaining weak and trading subdued. Downstream transactions were mainly based on negotiation. In the Shanghai area, early morning quotes centered around TD parity to +10 yuan/kg, with delivery brands from major manufacturers quoting firmly, but actual transactions might edge lower. In Shenzhen, some national standard cargoes were concentrated in a range from a slight discount to TD to +5 yuan/kg, with discount quotes clearing quickly. Today, the premium/discount for the most-traded SHFE 2608 contract was at a discount of 35 to 15 yuan/kg.

Overall, the general trend of precious metals fell under pressure, weighed down by both escalating geopolitical risks and diverging US Fed policies. Spot premiums weakened slightly, with transactions leaning toward parity. Demand was weak, and the market mentality of "rushing to buy amid continuous price rise and holding back amid price downturn" emerged.