Weak Market Sentiment for Polysilicon, Widened Price Spreads Among Wafers of Various Sizes [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Brief]

SMM, June 17:

Silicon coal

prices:

Silicon coal market prices remained largely stable this week. Specifically, Shaanxi silicon coal prices stood at 780-850 yuan/mt, Inner Mongolia silicon coal prices at 1,280-1,320 yuan/mt, Shanxi silicon coal prices at 1,300-1,600 yuan/mt, Gansu silicon mixed coal prices at 990 yuan/mt, silicon granular coal prices at 1,110 yuan/mt, and Xinjiang non-caking silicon coal prices at 855 yuan/mt.

Supply: Overall supply remained ample. With demand weak, shipments from most coal washing plants were slow, and inventory was under significant pressure.

Demand: Affected by the persistently sluggish silicon metal market, overall operating rates at downstream silicon plants remained low. Current purchasing was mainly need-based, and to control production costs, a strong sentiment of pushing for lower prices prevailed.

Silicon metal

prices: Yesterday, SMM assessed oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China at 9,100-9,200 yuan/mt and #441 silicon at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt. The most-traded contract in the futures market hovered around 8,650 yuan/mt. The silicon metal futures' fluctuation range was narrow. From a fundamental perspective, supply and demand both increased from June to July, with the supply-side surplus being relatively limited. Silicon enterprises' quotes were largely stable recently, and the supply-demand stalemate provided firm bottom-side support.

Production:

Silicon metal production in May was 331,300 mt, up 3.6% MoM and up 7.6% YoY. In early June, operating rates at northern silicon enterprises were generally stable. Some silicon enterprises in Sichuan gradually resumed production at a slow pace, while a small number in Yunnan restarted, with some others planning to resume production in early July.

Inventory:

Social inventory: SMM statistics showed that as of June 11, total social inventory of silicon metal in key regions was 560,000 mt, unchanged WoW (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, and other areas).

Prices

DMC: The most-traded transaction price was 14,500-14,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of approximately 14,650 yuan/mt. The current silicone market was locked in a supply-demand stalemate. The supply side saw successive production halts and load reductions starting last week, while the demand side was impacted by the off-season, with weak end-user shipments. This extended the destocking cycle for mid- and downstream raw materials, with purchases limited to small, need-based orders. A wait-and-see sentiment persisted, leaving trading in the market sluggish.

D4: Quoted at 14,600-15,200 yuan/mt yesterday, with an average price of approximately 14,900 yuan/mt.

107 silicone rubber: Quoted at 14,300-14,500 yuan/mt yesterday, with an average price of approximately 14,400 yuan/mt.

Raw silicone rubber: Quoted at 15,000-15,400 yuan/mt yesterday, with an average price of approximately 15,200 yuan/mt.

Silicone oil: Quoted at 16,000-16,500 yuan/mt yesterday, with an average price of approximately 16,250 yuan/mt.

Production:

With the implementation of the industry's 40% coordinated emission reduction policy, several monomer enterprises successively halted production and reduced loads last week. The industry's operating rate pulled back, and manufacturers' willingness to hold prices firm and control volumes to support prices was notably stronger than earlier in the month, resulting in a phased contraction of supply.

Inventory:

With the phased implementation of production cuts on the supply side, supply has contracted somewhat. Coupled with the ongoing delivery of some earlier orders, overall inventory pressure is likely to gradually ease.

Polysilicon

Price:

The quoted price for N-type recharging polysilicon stands at 32-34.2 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices remain generally weak, with individual large orders currently under negotiation. The market is awaiting subsequent outcomes and policy developments.

Production

In June, some production bases across China—such as those in Qinghai, Sichuan, and Inner Mongolia—plan to ramp up production. Polysilicon production is expected to rise considerably. At the same time, some bases in Xinjiang and Qinghai have maintenance plans in the near term.

Inventory:

Polysilicon inventory has declined. Order signing was limited earlier, and some orders continue to ship out, leading to reduced polysilicon inventory.

Wafer

Price

Market prices stand at 0.88-0.9 yuan/piece for 18X wafers, 0.98-1.00 yuan/piece for 210RN wafers, and 1.16-1.2 yuan/piece for 210N wafers. The low-end prices for 183 and 210N wafers also show a downward trend, and overall, the price ranges for wafers of various sizes are widening. Top-tier players are holding firm on prices, but smaller enterprises are closing deals at lower prices.

Production

According to SMM’s latest survey, total wafer production schedules in June are expected to fall between 54 and 55 GW. Except for one enterprise cutting production, several others are ramping up in an orderly fashion, leaving overall wafer supply marginally above demand. Some wafers are also supplied under a dual-distribution model with cells.

Inventory

Wafer inventory buildup is showing a divergent trend across enterprises. Demand for orders from overseas bonded zones is weakening marginally, and the recent sharp increase in ocean freight rates has put wafer shipments under pressure.

High-purity quartz sand

Price

Current domestic prices stand at 40,000-45,000 yuan/mt for inner-layer sand, 20,000-24,000 yuan/mt for middle-layer sand, and 16,000-18,000 yuan/mt for outer-layer sand, with imported high-purity quartz sand priced at 50,000-55,000 yuan/mt. Prices for quartz crucibles are 6,000-6,200 yuan/piece for the 33-inch size and 6,700-6,900 yuan/piece for the 36-inch size. Overall sand prices remain stable.

Production

In June, quartz sand enterprises plan to keep production on a trend of edging up. Driven by rising wafer production schedules, multiple crucible makers report improving order demand. Domestic high-purity quartz sand producers are mapping out their production plans to match wafer demand, and recently, demand for PV-grade high-purity quartz sand used in semiconductors has begun to gain momentum.

Inventory

Imported sand inventory continued to build in June. In Q2 2026, crucible enterprises are making reasonable purchases based on planned wafer production, and overall quartz sand inventory levels continue to rise.