Six Consecutive Inventory Declines Stimulated a Premium Rebound, Trading This Week Significantly Better Than Last Week [SMM South China Copper Cathode Spot Weekly Review]

Jul 02, 2026

Guangdong Region: This week, premiums in the region consolidated higher. Premiums remained stable early in the week, but as inventories continued to decline, suppliers began to actively hold prices firm, driving premiums upward. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at 100 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from last Thursday; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt WoW; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt WoW. On Thursday, the price spread for standard-quality copper premiums between Shanghai and Guangdong stood at 80 yuan/mt—higher in Shanghai. The gap was relatively small, leading to no inter-regional arbitrage shipments. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses was 24,200 mt, down 7,500 mt WoW. Warrants totaled 5,600 mt, down 200 mt WoW. Specifically, this week’s warehouse arrivals were 9,700 mt/week, a sharp WoW decrease of 11,200 mt/week and well below the annual average (14,000 mt/week). After the mid-year period, smelters’ pressure to clear inventory eased, reducing motivation for active destocking. Additionally, heavy rainfall and flooding affected parts of Guangxi this week, lowering logistics efficiency, which contributed to the significant decline in arrivals. Warehouse withdrawals were 17,200 mt/week, down 7,100 mt/week, yet above the annual average (14,200 mt/week). At the start of the month, downstream consumption recovered, and with reduced direct-shipment supply, users had to increase cargo pick-up from warehouses.

Looking ahead to next week, we understand that both imported and domestic supply will be limited, while downstream consumption is expected to be modest. A supply-demand lull is anticipated, with spot premiums holding steady and unlikely to rise significantly.

(The information above is derived from market data collection and a comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The content provided herein is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute direct investment, research, or trading advice. Clients should act with caution and not use this information as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Shanghai Metals Market bears no responsibility for any decisions made by clients.)