[SMM Analysis: 2026 Manganese Alloy Market Review & Outlook]

Published: Jul 9, 2026 10:04

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The 2026 H1 manganese market trended up first and down later, with high-level volatility driven by persistent friction between rigid high-cost support and weak terminal demand. The H2 market is poised for cost-supported limited recovery. Firm overseas ore prices will underpin the market, while high port inventories cap upside. Silicomanganese prices are expected to trend higher on production cuts and destocking, with rebound room constrained by demand recovery progress.

2026 H1 Manganese Industrial Chain Market Review (Concise Version)

The 2026 H1 manganese market trended up first and down later, with high-level volatility driven by persistent friction between rigid high-cost support and weak terminal demand.

January–February: Oscillatory Upswing (Cost-demand Resonance)

Manganese prices extended late-2025 gains. Tianjin Port 46% Australian lump ore rose from RMB 40/dmtu to 43–44/dmtu, while 6517 silicomanganese increased from RMB 5,575/ton to 5,700/ton.

Firm overseas ore prices and pre-holiday low port inventories lifted domestic cost benchmarks. Northern producers’ seasonal maintenance tightened alloy supply. Meanwhile, pre-Spring Festival restocking by steel mills boosted spot demand, jointly driving prices higher.

March–April: Sharp Rally to H1 Peak

Fueled by supply risks, bullish sentiment and rising production costs, manganese prices surged over 10% to H1 highs. Australian lump ore peaked at RMB 48/dmtu (+9.97%), semi-carbonate ore at 43.75/dmtu (+16.8%), and 6517 silicomanganese at RMB 6,300/ton (+10.5%).

Australian shipping disruptions, South African power shortages and higher freight rates boosted ore costs. March coke hikes and revised southern power pricing further lifted smelting expenses. Northern manufacturers’ coordinated production cuts tightened supply, while steady steel mill tender demand sustained firm transaction activity.

May–June: Post-peak Correction on Weakening Demand

The market reversed to weak consolidation amid worsening strong supply, weak demand fundamentals. Coke and power costs remained elevated, providing persistent cost support. However, steel mills slowed procurement and cut tender prices amid sluggish terminal demand.

Compressed alloy margins forced smelters to lower manganese ore purchase prices, triggering synchronous declines in ore and alloy quotes. Sustained supply-demand imbalance prompted partial industry production cuts.

H2 2026 Market Forecast

The H2 market is poised for cost-supported limited recovery. Firm overseas ore prices will underpin the market, while high port inventories cap upside. Silicomanganese prices are expected to trend higher on production cuts and destocking, with rebound room constrained by demand recovery progress.

July–August: Bottom Consolidation High inventory and weak demand headwinds will gradually ease. Sustained producer output cuts and solid coke & power cost floors will narrow price declines, enabling range-bound bottom formation and eliminating deep downside risks.

September–October: Seasonal Rebound (Core Profit Window) Traditional peak-season restocking will lift steel demand. Combined with continuous inventory destocking and firm external ore pricing, the sector will see a phased price recovery, marking the key profit window in H2.

November–December: High-level Volatility Winter stockpiling will offer fundamental support, while year-end crude steel output controls will cap demand growth and restrict further price rallies.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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