Expectations of a Middle East Shipping Lane Agreement Weaken Geopolitical Risks; Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Fluctuates After Probing Highs [SMM SHFE Tin Brief Review]

Published: May 26, 2026 16:30

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[SMM SHFE Tin Brief: Middle East Shipping Lane Agreement Expectations Weaken Geopolitical Risks; the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Fluctuated After Probing Higher]

Tin Daily Review, May 26, 2026

Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 421,930 yuan/mt, reached an intraday high of 430,880 yuan/mt, then the center pulled back somewhat. The afternoon close was at 425,360 yuan/mt, up 0.72% overall. LME tin rose in tandem before moving sideways, with three-month tin currently quoted at $54,690/mt, up 0.5%.

On the macro front:

(1) Reportedly, a draft agreement between the US and Iran was reached. The draft allows free access to relevant critical shipping lanes and the clearance of mines, while requiring the resumption of normal navigation through the waterway within 30 days.

(2) Iranian Foreign Ministry: No transit fees will be imposed on the Strait of Hormuz. Charging for services provided is normal, but it should not be regarded as a toll.

Supply side, data showed that the Indonesia exchange recorded a single-day trading volume of 1,450 mt on May 25, with cumulative monthly trading volume reaching 2,690 mt, indicating tin ingot supply was being released at a steady pace. Regarding the DRC health incident, it was understood that the Bisie mine had implemented strict management and screening measures, and mining and shipments from the site had not been disrupted.

Spot market, as futures surged again in the morning session and widened the trading range, spot trading in China further stagnated. With absolute prices elevated, purchase willingness in the market was extremely low. The market overall exhibited a stalemate pattern of "high prices, few buyers," with buyers deeply sidelined due to high raw material prices.

Overall, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to remain range-bound in the near term. Going forward, key attention should be paid to the pace of progress on Middle East-related agreements, as well as the actual arrival status of ex-China supply across various stages in terms of overall recovery and shipments in May.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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