[SMM Nickel Market Flash] World Bank Says Indonesia’s New Nickel Capacity May Be Curbed by Tight Ore Supply

Three distinct phases — scrap competition, supply-side cost shocks, and a refined nickel rally — show how pricing power for the world's dominant stainless steel feedstock now sits less in Jakarta than on the LME and SHFE.

Following the revision of Indonesia’s HPM formula to include Iron, Cobalt, and Chromium, SMM expects the pricing impact to vary significantly. According to SMM’s internal assumptions, Saprolite (20% Fe, 1% Cr, 0.05% Co) and Limonite (45% Fe, 2% Cr, 0.10% Co), calculated against the latest HMA benchmarks of $17,802/dmt for Nickel, an increase of 5.13%, $55,854/dmt for Cobalt, $1.56/dmt for Iron, and $6.37/dmt for Chrome. This modeling illustrates the impact of byproduct levels on the new benchmarks. These figures serve as a reference, though actual valuations will vary by mine geography and ore characteristics. • Ni 1.2%: USD 47.82/wmt (↑ $1.76) • Ni 1.3%: USD 52.34/wmt (↑ $1.98) • Ni 1.4%: USD 57.30/wmt (↑ $2.14) • Ni 1.5%: USD 62.28/wmt (↑ $2.38) • Ni 1.6%: USD 67.49/wmt (↑ $2.63)

The UK plans to impose 50% steel tariffs and a 60% quota cut starting July 2026, potentially driving prices above €1,000/ton, causing the highest in Europe. Similarly, EU steel prices have risen 20% since October 2025, with a 34% total surge expected by mid-2026 due to new safeguards and CBAM. In stark contrast, the Indian Ministry of Steel issued a decree on April 27, 2026, exempting MSMEs from QCO compliance for specific stainless steel imports until October 2026. While Europe faces criticism for strangling its manufacturing backbone with bureaucracy and duties, India is moving to de-bureaucratize and support its smaller industrial players.