ADC12 prices generally stable with slight rise, domestic-overseas inversion continues to repair [ADC12 Price Daily Review]

Futures: Today, the aluminum alloy 2609 contract opened at 22,850 yuan/mt during intraday trading, dipped to an intraday low of 22,700 yuan/mt, surged to 23,035 yuan/mt, and closed the morning session at 22,875 yuan/mt, with an intraday increase of 0.42% and a fluctuation range of 95 yuan/mt. On the 4-hour chart, the K value of the KD indicator stood at 68.42 and the D value at 54.95, continuing to rise, while the intraday RSI remained in neutral to slightly bullish territory. Trading volume reached 5,174 lots, and open interest decreased by a slight 144 lots to 18,993 lots. The short-term oversold rebound persisted, but faced significant resistance at the 23,035 yuan/mt level, and upward momentum slowed.

Spot: Today, secondary aluminum alloy market prices were generally stable with a slight rise. SMM ADC12 price rose by 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day to 24,050 yuan/mt. The rebound in aluminum prices and high costs at the cost side continued to support enterprise quotations. Tight supply of aluminum scrap and persistently high procurement costs kept enterprises’ willingness to cut prices low. However, downstream demand recovery remained limited, and order performance was mediocre, with some enterprises concerned that price hikes would pressure trading volumes, leading to a mainly wait-and-see approach with stable prices. Overall, driven by cost support and a recovering futures market, the ADC12 price center moved higher, but the demand side had not yet cooperated effectively. In the short term, the market mainly fluctuated within a narrow range, showing strong downside resistance but also upward pressure.

Import: Overseas ADC12 prices continued to decline, recently falling further to the $3,100–3,200/mt range. In contrast, domestic ADC12 prices remained relatively firm due to support from aluminum scrap costs, driving the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets to continuously narrow. Import losses gradually shrank, currently at approximately 1,087 yuan per mt. Additionally, according to transaction feedback during the week, some actual transaction prices had dropped to $3,000/mt, basically reaching the import break-even line. In the short term, the extent of price inversion between Chinese and overseas markets is expected to narrow further, and the window for import profits may gradually open.