SMM, July 9:
Metal markets:
As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market fell across the board. SHFE copper and aluminum dropped 0.68% and 0.65% respectively. SHFE zinc fell 0.77%, and SHFE lead edged down 0.19%. SHFE tin declined 1.69%. SHFE nickel slipped 0.63%.
In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract fell 0.78%, while the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.11%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract tumbled 5.32%. The most-traded silicon metal contract dropped 0.72%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 2.63%.
Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore edged down, and rebar dipped 0.16%. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) was flat at 3,294 yuan/mt. Stainless steel fell 2.09%. In the coking coal and coke market, the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.12%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 0.23%.
As for base metals on the overseas market, as of 11:41 a.m., LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper edged up, LME aluminum fell 0.18%, and LME lead dipped 0.16%. LME zinc rose 0.43%, and LME tin gained 0.12%. LME nickel fell 0.49%.
In precious metals, as of 11:41 a.m., COMEX gold fell 0.38%, and COMEX silver declined 0.8%. On the domestic precious metals market, SHFE gold fell 1.87%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract dropped 4.81%.
Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 2.46%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract dropped 3.35%.
As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping (Europe) futures contract tumbled 7.38% to 2,358 points.
Midday market snapshot as of 11:41 a.m., July 9:
Spot Market and Fundamentals
Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 100 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,475 yuan/mt, down 430 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of SX-EW copper was 102,375 yuan/mt, down 425 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventories fell for the sixth consecutive day, mainly due to persistently low arrivals...
Macro Front
China:
[National Bureau of Statistics: June CPI up 1% YoY, PPI up 4.1% YoY; PPI growth slightly expanded] National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed: In June 2026, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.0% YoY. Specifically, urban CPI rose 1.0%, and rural CPI rose 0.8%. Food prices fell 1.6%, and non-food prices rose 1.5%. Consumer goods prices rose 1.1%, and service prices rose 0.8%. On average over H1, national CPI rose 1.0% compared to the same period last year. In June, national CPI fell 0.3% MoM. Among them, urban CPI fell 0.4%, and rural CPI fell 0.3%. Food prices fell 0.4%, and non-food prices fell 0.3%. Consumer goods prices fell 0.6%, while service prices remained flat. NBS data showed that in June 2026, the national producer price index (PPI) rose 4.1% YoY and fell 0.3% MoM. Producer purchasing prices rose 6.4% YoY and fell 0.2% MoM. In H1, producer prices rose 1.5% YoY and producer purchasing prices rose 2.4% YoY. Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the NBS Urban Department, interpreted the CPI and PPI data for June 2026.
[PBOC reverse repo operation achieves net withdrawal of 278.5 billion yuan] The PBOC conducted 10 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 288.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, the day saw a net withdrawal of 278.5 billion yuan. (Jinshi Data App)
US Dollar:
As of 11:41 a.m., the US dollar index fell 0.12% to 100.95. The US Fed's June meeting minutes showed that officials were increasingly concerned about high inflation. Although officials worried that broadening price increases might require rate hikes, they followed Fed Chairman Warsh's lead and released a more streamlined policy statement. At the June 16-17 meeting, a few participants saw a case for an immediate rate hike. But broader discussions appeared evenly split: "most participants" saw scenarios where inflation could fall back to the Fed's 2% target on its own, while also seeing scenarios where it could remain persistently high. "Nearly all" participants holding the latter view felt that if that scenario materialized, rate hikes would be necessary. The minutes stated: "Participants generally judged that information received during the intermeeting period indicated that upside risks to price stability remained elevated, while downside risks to achieving maximum employment had moderated." In the end, "all participants" supported holding rates steady. (Jinshi Data App)
According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 69.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 31.0%. The probability of keeping rates unchanged through September is 31.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 51.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 17.0%. (Jinshi Data App)
US Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will testify before the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee on July 14 and 15 respectively, presenting the semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress. According to an announcement on the Senate Banking Committee's official website, Warsh will appear before the Senate Banking Committee at 10:00 a.m. ET on July 15. The hearing will focus on the Fed's semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress and will be webcast. Earlier, the House Financial Services Committee confirmed on June 22 that Warsh would testify at a hearing on the same topic before the House at 10:00 a.m. ET on July 14. This testimony holds significant reference value for the market. As his first public appearance to testify on monetary policy before Congress as Fed Chairman, Warsh's wording and stance will provide critical clues for assessing the Fed's policy path. (Wall Street CN)
Data:
Data to be released today include Germany's May seasonally adjusted trade balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, and US June existing home sales annualized rate. Also, attention will focus on: the US Fed releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes; the European Central Bank releasing its June monetary policy meeting minutes; and a speech by FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams.
Crude Oil:
As of 11:41 a.m., oil prices in both markets extended gains for a second consecutive session. WTI crude rose 1.18%, and Brent crude gained 1.13%. Escalating Middle East tensions, which raised market concerns over supply disruptions, supported oil prices.
The US launched strikes on Iran for a second consecutive day, increasingly destabilizing the fragile ceasefire between the two nations. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz nearly ground to a halt on Thursday. Ship-tracking data showed that observable transit through this critical global energy chokepoint was mostly concentrated on routes near the northern part of the waterway approved by Iran, while the Oman corridor backed by the US was very quiet. Among large vessels, only a US-sanctioned VLCC was observed leaving the Persian Gulf, while an Iranian-flagged container ship also appeared in the Strait. However, the possibility remains that some ships may have transited with their transponders off. This stands in stark contrast to recent daily activity in the Strait. Kpler data showed that in the three weeks since the US-Iran temporary deal reopened the Strait, daily average commodity vessel transits stood at 34, peaking at 59 on June 24, compared to fewer than 20 on most days during the war. (Jinshi Data App)
Goldman Sachs expects that if the 60-day negotiations persist and the Iranian oil exemption is reinstated, Persian Gulf oil flows could resume by end-July, requiring an additional 6.6 million barrels per day of throughput through the Strait. Should talks collapse and tanker attacks escalate, coupled with a potential US blockade of Iranian oil, Persian Gulf flows could decline further. (Jinshi Data App)
Spot Market Overview:
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Midday reviews for other metals will be updated shortly, please refresh to check~
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