[SMM Analysis] May 2026 Bauxite Review: Cost Support Persists, Downstream Acceptance of High Prices Remains Limited, Ex-China Bauxite Prices Fluctuate at Highs

Imported Bauxite Prices

As of May 25, 2026, ex-China bauxite prices generally remained stable with a slight upward trend. Affected by rising energy and ocean freight costs, some imported ore prices edged up. However, raw material inventory at China's alumina refineries stayed high, and downstream acceptance of high-priced resources was limited, with market transactions still dominated by just-in-time procurement. Among them, the SMM imported bauxite CIF index (converted to 45/3 grade) was quoted at $67.61/mt, up $0.09/mt MoM, with the monthly price range at $67.52-67.85/mt.

By variety, Guinea bauxite FOB prices (converted to 45/3 grade) were quoted at $38/mt, flat MoM, with prices remaining stable since May. Guinea bauxite CIF prices (converted to 45/3 grade) were quoted at $68/mt, up $0.05/mt MoM, with the monthly price range at $67-68/mt. Australia bauxite CIF prices (49-50/6-7 grade) were quoted at $62/mt, and Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF prices (51-52/8-10 grade) were quoted at $56.5/mt, both flat MoM. Turkey bauxite CFR prices (54/6 grade) were quoted at $78.5/mt, up $2.5/mt MoM, with prices rising from $76/mt to $78.5/mt within the month. Malaysia bauxite CIF prices (37-41/5-6 grade) were quoted at $52/mt, Malaysia washed bauxite CIF prices (37-41/5-6 grade) were quoted at $62.5/mt, and Ghana bauxite CIF prices (47-51/5-6 grade) were quoted at $78/mt, all remaining stable within the month.

Bauxite Imports and Exports

Customs data showed that in April 2026, China imported 19.743 million mt of bauxite, down 9.4% MoM and down 4.6% YoY. From January to April 2026, China's cumulative bauxite imports totalled 77.728 million mt, up 14.7% YoY.

By country, in April 2026, China imported 16.423 million mt of bauxite from Guinea, down 9.4% MoM and down 1.9% YoY. From January to April 2026, China's cumulative bauxite imports from Guinea totalled 62.964 million mt, up 18.5% YoY. Guinea remained the primary source country for China's bauxite imports.

Shipment side, as of May 22, daily average bauxite shipments from Guinea's main ports fell to 559,000 mt/day, down approximately 21.8% MoM. Considering the shipping schedule transmission cycle, China's bauxite port arrivals are expected to gradually pull back from late June, with a notable decline expected in July.

Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

In May 2026, ex-China bauxite prices were mainly affected by three factors: Guinea's export policy expectations, rising energy and ocean freight costs, and high inventory at China's alumina refineries suppressing purchase willingness.

First, Guinea's bauxite export quota policy remained a market focus. Earlier, there were market rumours that the Guinean government might implement the bauxite export quota policy around the Labour Day holiday, driving up Guinea bauxite prices by restricting shipments. However, as the relevant policy had yet to be officially implemented, its marginal impact on market sentiment weakened, and market participants' enthusiasm for pricing and stockpiling based on this factor also declined.

Second, rising energy and ocean freight costs provided some support for ex-China ore prices. Affected by geopolitical disruptions, international oil prices fluctuated at highs, and mine overland transport, ocean freight, and production operating costs all rose. According to an SMM survey, ocean freight rates from Guinea to China rose from approximately $34/wmt in April to $36-37.5/wmt in May, significantly pushing up shipping costs for mines and traders. Against the backdrop of increasing cost pressure, some mines and traders showed reduced enthusiasm for shipments, and the market also saw a slowdown in shipping pace.

Third, raw material inventory at China's alumina refineries remained at a relatively high level, limiting acceptance of high-priced imported ore. Currently, bauxite inventory at China's alumina refineries stood at over 3 months, with downstream buyers mainly making just-in-time procurement and showing weak willingness to rush to buy amid continuous price rise. Although some long-term contract prices from Guinea to China were around $70/mt in May, an SMM survey found that some downstream alumina refineries' intended prices for spot bauxite purchases were still concentrated around $65-67/mt, with significant price divergence between buyers and sellers.

Price Outlook

Supply side, energy and ocean freight costs stayed high, providing some support for ex-China bauxite prices. Meanwhile, shipments from Guinea's main ports pulled back on a phased basis, which may gradually transmit to China's port arrival side. Demand side, bauxite inventory at China's alumina refineries remained relatively sufficient, with limited possibility of significantly raising procurement target prices in the short term, and notable bargaining between high- and low-priced resources persisted in the market.

SMM expects that ex-China bauxite prices will hover at highs in the near term. Continued attention should be paid to changes in Guinea's shipments, ocean freight rate trends, the pace of inventory drawdown at China's alumina refineries, and shifts in procurement sentiment.