Silicon Metal Futures Center Shifted Higher with Increased Enterprise Shipments; Heavy Wait-and-See Sentiment in Polysilicon Market [SMM Silicon Industry Weekly Review]

SMM April 30 News:Silicon metal:Spot silicon metal prices remained largely stable this week. As of April 30, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,000-9,200 yuan/mt, flat WoW; #441 silicon was at 9,200-9,400 yuan/mt, flat WoW; #421 silicon (used in silicone) was at 9,300-9,800 yuan/mt, flat WoW; #3303 silicon was at 10,100-10,300 yuan/mt, flat WoW. In the futures market, the most-traded contract trended stronger during the week, with the SI2609 contract center at 8,700-8,800 yuan/mt, touching above 8,900 yuan/mt at its peak. Macro factors and news stimulated futures to rise, boosting silicon producers' shipment sentiment, and silicon enterprises' shipments to trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market increased.

Demand side, polysilicon operating rates were basically stable. In April, overall polysilicon silicon consumption was around 100,000 mt. In May, polysilicon total production is expected to edge up amid increases and decreases, with limited incremental silicon consumption from silicon metal. Silicone enterprises' operating rates increased this week and next week, mainly driven by production resumptions of individual monomer capacity. In April, affected by joint production cuts to hold prices firm, SMM data showed DMC production at 183,700 mt, down about 5% MoM from March. In May, silicone operating rates are expected to increase, with an expected MoM increase of 8%. Alloy enterprises' weekly operating rates were largely stable. Some secondary aluminum alloy enterprises will halt production during the Labour Day holiday, impacting alloy enterprises' operations next week, but with limited impact on silicon metal consumption.

Supply side, SMM data showed silicon metal production at 320,000 mt in April, down 3% MoM and up 6% YoY. In May, silicon metal production is expected to increase MoM to around 340,000 mt. However, uncertainty remains regarding future operating rates, and attention should be paid to changes in operating rates of top-tier enterprises and the Sichuan region.

Fundamentals, silicon metal supply and demand were in tight balance in April, with no major adjustment expectations for the supply-demand structure in May. Facing supply increment pressure from the rainy season in Sichuan and Yunnan, June-July, market outlook leaned cautious. Cost side, raw material prices remained firm. With upside for silicon metal prices limited, prices were supported by costs below, and the price fluctuation range was narrow.

Polysilicon:This week, the polysilicon price index was 35.12 yuan/kg, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 34-36.3 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon was quoted at 34-36 yuan/kg. Overall polysilicon prices remained stable this week, with extremely limited market changes. Large orders signed previously resulted in few new transactions this week. Meanwhile, as meeting results fell short of prior expectations and anticipation built for subsequent meetings, wait-and-see sentiment in the market increased, and prices remained stable accordingly. In May, 2 polysilicon producers increased production while 1 cut production. Overall China production edged up. The market is watching a leading manufacturer's output situation in June.

Wafer:Wafer price ranges adjusted this week. N-type 183 wafer prices were at 0.9-0.93 yuan/piece, 210R wafer quotes were 1-1.03 yuan/piece, and 210mm wafer quotes were 1.2-1.23 yuan/piece. Wafers have recently stopped falling and stabilized. After the holiday, once battery price increases were accepted, 210R and 210 prices were first accepted by downstream buyers. May's overall trend was most likely largely stable, as demand did not support significant wafer price increases. After a new round of restocking by wafer enterprises, the overall supply-demand pattern was relatively healthy. May production schedule was 51.09GW, up 9.89% MoM.

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