【SMM Analysis】Ternary Cathode Orders See Notable Recovery

This week, ternary cathode material prices continued to rise. On the raw material front, nickel sulfate transaction prices increased rapidly due to expectations of sustained upward pressure on future production costs; cobalt sulfate saw slight declines amid quiet market conditions; manganese sulfate remained stable; and lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide continued their upward trend amidst volatility.

In terms of transactions, the market remained focused on executing previously signed long-term contracts. Spot contract transactions were relatively quiet due to persistently high lithium salt prices. Regarding long-term contracts, most manufacturers have primarily adopted quarterly contracts. Although nickel sulfate prices are expected to continue rising, payables were already set at the beginning of the second quarter, and downstream battery cell manufacturers have shown low acceptance of upward payable adjustments at the end of this month. This has limited any upward room for payables between upstream cathode manufacturers and precursor producers. Therefore, overall payable levels in the ternary cathode market are expected to remain stable next month.

On the demand side, the domestic EV market has seen a significant increase in orders, driven by the concentrated launch of new vehicle models. Both automakers and battery cell manufacturers are confident about future orders and currently have restocking needs. Meanwhile, the consumer market and e-mobility market remain in the traditional off-season, with demand staying relatively flat in the near term.

On the overseas front, despite the end of the export rebate policy, the European auto market has performed strongly, and some leading battery cell manufacturers have restocking needs. As a result, the decline in April overseas orders has been limited, and May is expected to show improvement.