In the previous two articles, we conducted detailed calculations on the demand for neodymium iron boron (NdFeB) in sectors including transportation, wind power, white goods, consumer electronics, and real estate. As the concluding piece of this series, we now turn our gaze to the future, focusing on three emerging growth poles highly anticipated by the market: the robotics industry, the low-altitude economy, and electric two-wheelers. These sectors are considered key to the "second growth curve" for rare earth permanent magnet demand. However, under the dual context of the 2026 macroeconomic environment and industry cycles, what is their actual supportive capacity? We will explore this through our data model.
I. The Robotics Sector: Steady Industrial Growth and the "Expectation Gap" for Humanoid Robots
As a core component of high-end manufacturing, the robotics industry is primarily divided into two camps: industrial robots and service robots.
1. Industrial Robots: The "De-magnetization" Trend Amidst Cost Reduction and Efficiency Gains
According to the definition by the National Bureau of Statistics, industrial robots are programmable, multi-functional manipulators designed for industrial automation, capable of handling materials, parts, tools, or specialized equipment through variable programmed motions.
Data shows that from January to February 2026, China's industrial robot production totaled 111,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 15%. This growth is mainly attributed to the continuous promotion of manufacturing transformation and upgrading, as well as the rigid demand from enterprises for automated production line upgrades. Despite macroeconomic challenges, the logic of "replacing humans with machines" to enhance production efficiency remains solid.
SMM forecasts that the annual production growth rate for industrial robots in 2026 will remain at 15%, with a total output of approximately 868,200 units. Based on SMM's model, the average demand for high-performance NdFeB magnetic steel per industrial robot is 20 kilograms. Accordingly, the total consumption of magnetic steel in the industrial robot sector in 2026 is projected to reach 18,311.8 tons, a 9% increase from 16,783 tons in 2025.
Notably, the growth rate of magnetic steel demand (9%) is significantly lower than the production growth rate (15%). The core reason lies in the fact that as industrial robot technology matures, industry competition is shifting from pure performance comparisons to cost control. Coupled with the high volatility of rare earth prices posing a potential threat to supply chain security, mainstream robot manufacturers are actively optimizing motor designs. They are slowly reducing the NdFeB content per unit through algorithm optimization or the adoption of alternative materials to enhance product cost competitiveness.
2. Service Robots: The Halo and Reality of Humanoid Robots
Service robots encompass household robotic vacuum cleaners, commercial service robots, and high-end robots represented by humanoid robots.
From January to February 2026, service robot production reached a staggering 2,547,480 units, a significant increase of approximately 70% compared to 1,494,024 units in the same period of 2025. This explosive growth is primarily due to the Spring Festival peak season effect and the replacement cycle for robotic vacuum cleaners driven by the popularization of smart homes. However, SMM expects the annual growth rate for service robots in 2026 to fall back to 13%. The reason is that the high growth in the first quarter overdraftsome of the annual demand, and the penetration of commercial robots in areas like catering and delivery is entering a stable growth phase, making it difficult to sustain the explosive momentum seen at the beginning of the year.
Demand Structure Calculation:
Household Robotic Vacuum Cleaners (91% share): Consumption of approx. 55g/unit.
Commercial Robots (7.8% share): Consumption of approx. 355g/unit.
Humanoid and High-end Robots (1.2% share): Consumption of approx. 2550g/unit.
Based on the above structure, the total NdFeB demand in the service robot sector for 2026 is projected to be 1,983.21 tons, an increase of approximately 16% compared to 1,706 tons in 2025.
In-depth Analysis of Humanoid Robots:
2025 was hailed as the "Year of the Humanoid Robot." Unitree Robotics pioneered mass production, with an annual output of 5,500 units, and their spectacular performance at the Spring Festival Gala ignited market enthusiasm. Against the backdrop of weak traditional NdFeB demand in 2026, many see humanoid robots as the "savior," and leading magnetic material manufacturers have also begun to layout strategically position.
However, surveys show that high-end robots represented by humanoid robots are still in their infancy, accounting for only a tiny fraction (1.2%) of service robots in statistical classification. Amidst geopolitical instability and a sluggish global economy, SMM believes that humanoid robots will struggle to be the "unique exception" in 2026. While new technologies are exciting, constrained by high costs and an immature commercial closed loop, their substantial support for NdFeB demand and prices in 2026 is quite limited, remaining more at the "expectation" level.
II. Electric Two-Wheelers: A Steady Growth Mainstay
Compared to the high volatility of the robotics sector, electric two-wheelers have demonstrated strong resilience.
According to SMM statistics, China's electric two-wheeler production in 2025 was 54.1 million units. Based on SMM's model, the NdFeB consumption per unit is approximately 450g (mainly for hub motors). Assuming a year-on-year production growth rate of 10% in 2026, the projected NdFeB demand for electric two-wheelers in 2026 will reach 26,779 tons.
The reason electric two-wheelers can maintain a steady 10% growth rate in 2026 is primarily driven by the continuous promotion of domestic "trade-in" policies and strong export demand from emerging overseas markets (such as Southeast Asia and Latin America) for Chinese electric two-wheelers. As a fundamental tool for green travel, its market demand is less affected by economic cycle fluctuations, making it an indispensable "ballast stone" for NdFeB demand.
III. Low-Altitude Economy: A Potential Player in a Data Fog
Finally, we explore the sector with the most imagination – the low-altitude economy.
Constrained by its nascent stage and the lack of consensus on data statistics, the low-altitude economy has not yet been individually incorporated into SMM's 2026 praseodymium-neodymium terminal demand calculation model. Here, we will only provide reference analysis based on public data.
The main carrier of the low-altitude economy is civilian drones. Data from the Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission shows that Guangdong hosts over 30% of China's low-altitude industry chain enterprises, totaling 15,000 companies, including leaders like EHang and DJI. In 2024, Guangdong's civilian drone production reached 6.94 million units, ranking first in the country. Among these, consumer-grade drones accounted for 95% of the national market share, and industrial-grade drones accounted for 54%.
According to incomplete statistics, national drone production in 2025 was approximately 9.25 million units, covering consumer-grade, industrial/commercial, military, and large drones. Due to vast differences in models, NdFeB consumption also varies greatly:
Consumer-grade drones: Consumption of approx. 100-300g/unit.
Commercial/Industrial drones: Consumption of approx. 500-2000g/unit.
Although there are different opinions within the industry regarding drone magnetic material usage, SMM has not yet completed in-depth research in this area and cannot confirm the accuracy of the data. Judging by the current development speed of the low-altitude economy, the projected growth rate for this sector in 2026 is between 15%-35%. Despite the considerable growth rate, due to the small base and ongoing iteration of technical routes, it is difficult to form an explosive trend in the short term and is not yet sufficient to be a major supporting factor for NdFeB prices.
IV. Conclusion: "Distant Water" from Emerging Fields Cannot Quench "Immediate Thirst"
With this, the series of analyses based on the 2026 praseodymium-neodymium terminal demand model has concluded.
Besides the major areas mentioned above, NdFeB is also widely used in niche fields like refrigerator magnets, electric curtains, high-end hair dryers, and toy magnets. These applications are extremely scattered and difficult to statistically quantify. Therefore, we uniformly define the NdFeB demand from other sectors, including civilian drones, as 13%. In the future, as industries like civilian drones scale up, the proportion of this sector will gradually increase.
Summary:
Although robotics, the low-altitude economy, and electric two-wheelers represent future development directions, in 2026, industrial robots face pressure to reduce costs and material usage, humanoid robots are still in their infancy, and the low-altitude economy has too small a base. While these emerging fields have broad prospects, at this current juncture, they cannot yet fill the gap left by the declining demand in traditional sectors (such as wind power and white goods). The market still needs to view the short-term supply and demand landscape rationally and be wary of price risks brought about by excessive expectations.
