SHFE Tin Contract Was in the Doldrums at High Levels Today, Macro Sentiment Persisted but Spot Cargo Support Was Weak [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the morning of February 26, 2026, the most-traded SHFE tin contract was in the doldrums, closing at 414,980 yuan/mt in the morning session, up 3.52% from the previous trading day's settlement price. On the LME, the three-month tin contract also traded weakly, temporarily quoted at $53,050/mt, down 1.6%.

Spot side, prices again broke through the 410,000-yuan mark, further strengthening downstream enterprises' wait-and-see sentiment toward high-priced raw materials. Most enterprises chose to digest pre-holiday inventory and postponed restocking. After the holiday, spot market circulation remained tight, while inter-provincial transport had not fully recovered. Tight transport capacity pushed up short-haul logistics costs, which also hindered spot transactions to some extent. Warrant side, SHFE tin warrants totaled 11,738 mt yesterday, at a relatively high level, reflecting that previously shipped cargoes had not been effectively absorbed by the market. Although spot circulation appeared tight, actual supply elasticity remained.

Short term, the market is still in a post-holiday recovery transition phase, with prices more influenced by macro sentiment than real demand. Caution is needed against correction risks. Going forward, focus will be on whether macro sentiment can gain sustained support from real demand follow-through, as well as the actual purchase willingness of downstream enterprises after full resumption of work and the pace of inventory digestion.