US Fed "Dovish" Governor's Stance Turns "Hawkish"; Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Consolidates at Highs with a Weakening Center [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Tin Midday Commentary for Jul 7, 2026

Tin prices stayed high, swinging wildly. The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 410,350 yuan/mt and closed the morning session at 407,330 yuan/mt, down 0.26%. On the LME side, three-month tin was last quoted at $52,610/mt, down 0.92%.

Macro front:

(1) US Fed Governor Waller publicly stated that forward guidance is not a case of more is better and can be abandoned entirely under special circumstances; the risk posed by rising inflation now takes precedence over the risk of a weakening job market, monetary policy must prioritize anchoring price stability, and if inflation rebounds, resuming rate hikes should not be ruled out.

(2) The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced on Jul 6 that the full list of 2026 projects designed to implement major national strategies and build up security capacity in key areas has been issued, backed by 19.35 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special government bonds, covering areas such as sci-tech manufacturing, the electronics industry, and new energy infrastructure.

In the spot market, transactions were quite sluggish this morning, with overall trading interest leaning thin. Suppliers actively quoted prices in line with prevailing market levels, but given the current absolute price of futures fluctuating at a high range, buyer wariness and resistance were evident, and market feedback was generally cool. There was a lack of large orders entering the market for purchases. Most transactions saw downstream firms and end-users maintaining a just-in-time procurement pace, cautiously probing by placing low-priced, small-quantity orders, causing the spot cargo circulation pace to slow down again.

Overall, the futures market is currently following speculative logic largely driven by macro capital sentiment, while the stalemate on the spot side is expected to suppress some upside room. It is anticipated that the most-traded SHFE tin contract will broadly consolidate with wild swings in the short term, with its center leaning slightly weaker due to a rebound in the US dollar index.