Overnight copper prices continued to rebound, bulls added positions; as delivery approached, circulation was tight, spot premiums were maintained [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Notes]

Monday, June 15, 2026
Futures: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $13,675/mt, and its price center fluctuated downward to touch a low of $13,611/mt. Then the price center fluctuated upward, rising to $13,729.5/mt near the end of trading, and finally closed at $13,713.5/mt, up 1.02%. Trading volume reached 19,000 lots, and open interest reached 266,000 lots, an increase of 1,001 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting an increase in bullish positions. The most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 104,280 yuan/mt last Friday evening and immediately dipped to 104,250 yuan/mt. Its price center then fluctuated upward all the way to touch a high of 105,050 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 104,980 yuan/mt, up 0.31%. Trading volume reached 25,000 lots, and open interest reached 148,000 lots, a decrease of 1,207 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting a reduction in bearish positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) On Thursday, June 11, Argentina's Mining Minister Luis Lucero said that with economic reforms and a new legal framework to attract and support mining projects, the Argentine government is expected to become a preferred destination for critical minerals investment. Speaking at a critical minerals event hosted by the US Chamber of Commerce, Lucero stated: "Argentina has one of the most significant critical mineral resource portfolios in the world." According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, the country has 85.5 million mt of lithium reserves and resources, and 124.3 million mt of copper reserves and resources. "Resources alone do not attract investment. Investment requires trust in institutions, regulations, and political leadership, and the confidence that a project started today will remain feasible in 10, 20, or 30 years," Lucero said. "I believe Argentina is now offering that confidence in a way it hasn't for many years," he added.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of June 12, the SHFE copper 2606 contract showed a weak upward trend. It opened at 103,540 yuan/mt, then quickly surged to 104,510 yuan/mt before edging down slightly, dipping to 104,260 yuan/mt. After stabilizing, it rebounded to 104,730 yuan/mt, then pulled back slightly before continuing to rise, touching a high of 105,020 yuan/mt. At the close, prices edged down to end at 104,800 yuan/mt. The inter-month spread was between a contango of 60 yuan/mt and a backwardation of 20 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the front-month 2606 contract ranged from a loss of 270 yuan/mt to a loss of 180 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, June 15 is the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2606 contract. According to the SMM #1 copper cathode price assessment methodology, SMM always quotes against the front-month contract. During the day, the price center of copper moved higher, and downstream purchasing sentiment pulled back slightly, indicating that high prices weighed on demand. Approaching delivery, suppliers showed strong willingness to hold positions for delivery, with available supply relatively tight. In addition, spot inventories in Guangdong remained at low levels, with offers at premiums of around 200 yuan/mt, potentially lending support to premiums in Shanghai. Overall, spot premiums for SHFE copper against the front-month June contract are expected to remain at a premium level today.
(2) Guangdong: On June 12, spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract: high-quality copper quoted at 270 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper quoted at a premium of 210 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper quoted at a premium of 150 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,715 yuan/mt, up 1,090 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the SX-EW copper average price was 104,625 yuan/mt, up 1,075 yuan/mt. Overall, with inventory hitting a record low, suppliers actively held prices firm. Premiums surged a cumulative 230 yuan/mt this week, but trading sentiment was declining.
(3) Imported copper: On June 12, the average warrant price was flat from the previous trading day at $59/mt (price range $54-64/mt); the average B/L price was flat at $61/mt (price range $55-67/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was flat at $29/mt (price range $24-34/mt), with offers referencing cargoes arriving in mid-to-late June and early July.
(4) Secondary copper: On June 12, at 11:30, the futures closing price was 104,950 yuan/mt, up 1,900 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums averaged 30 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Secondary copper raw material prices rose 600 yuan/mt MoM today. The sales sentiment index for secondary copper raw materials fell to 2.44, and the purchase sentiment index fell to 2.33. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap stood at 2,791 yuan/mt, up 1,204 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,130 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, amid the strong rebound in copper prices, many scrap utilization enterprises exhibited flat purchase willingness, with market demand declining markedly. Secondary copper raw material traders raised prices by only a limited amount; hence, despite the widening cathode-scrap price spread during the day, downstream demand could not be stimulated, and secondary copper rod prices remained elevated.
Price: On the macro front, multiple sources indicated that a US-Iran peace agreement has been reached, the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened, and both sides plan to sign a memorandum of understanding this Friday. Easing geopolitical risks tempered market concerns over accelerating inflation, and the US dollar index softened, providing support for copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply was tight as the delivery date approached; on the demand side, downstream purchase sentiment retreated due to higher copper prices. Overall, copper prices are expected to hold up well and fluctuate with an upward bias today.
[The information provided is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment, research, or decision-making advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]