June 9, 2026
The price of gold is stagnating despite tensions in the Middle East. While the risk of escalation around the Strait of Hormuz is supporting safe-haven demand, the robust U.S. labor market is dampening hopes for imminent interest rate cuts.
Macroeconomic Factors: U.S. Labor Market and Interest Rate Path
The latest US labor market data is weighing on non-interest-bearing precious metals and capped the recovery from the day’s lows. In May, 172,000 new jobs were created in the US non-farm sector (primarily in the leisure/hospitality, local government, and healthcare sectors). The unemployment rate remained at 4.3%.
A resilient labor market gives the Federal Reserve leeway to keep interest rates high for longer. However, higher yield expectations increase the opportunity costs of gold investments.
Other market indicators & dates:
- US Dollar Index: Fell to 99.96 points after previously reaching a two-month high. A weaker dollar tends to support gold.
- 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield: Moved in the range of 4.6%, limiting the upside potential for precious metals.
Focus: Upcoming U.S. consumer price data (CPI) on Wednesday and producer prices (PPI) on Thursday will provide new signals regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.
Geopolitics: Strait of Hormuz and oil price linkage
Following an exchange of fire between Israel and Iran, concerns about supply bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz flared up. Under pressure from the U.S., both sides suspended the attacks for the time being.
For the gold market, the development is a double-edged sword: Geopolitical risks drive up the gold price as a hedge, but at the same time, energy prices are rising. Brent crude briefly climbed above $98 and was last trading at $94.78 per barrel; WTI stood at around $91.83 per barrel. Persistently high oil prices fuel inflation, which in turn can lead to more restrictive Fed interest rates and weigh on gold.
Key technical levels
In the short term, the interplay of inflation data and geopolitics will determine whether precious metals test their resistance levels or approach support levels.
Gold
Resistance: The first relevant zone lies between $4,350 and $4,370. A sustained breakout opens the path toward $4,530 to $4,550. Above that, the 50-day moving average stands at around $4,624.
Support levels: The $4,300 mark is technically crucial. A break below this zone could push the price down to $4,180 to $4,200.
Silver
Resistance: Above $70, the next target is $71 to $72. The 50-day moving average stands at approximately $76.12.
Support: The zone between $65 and $66 offers an initial support level. A slide below this level brings the $61 mark into focus.
Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-at-at-an-inflection-point-inflation-and-hormus-in-the-spotlight
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