Rise in Primary Aluminum Liquid Metal Ratio Lower Than Expected in April, Expected to Edge Higher in May 【SMM Analysis】

SMM News, April 30:

According to SMM statistics, China’s primary aluminum output in April 2026 (30 days) rose by 1.7% year-on-year and fell by 2.9% month-on-month.

As the traditional peak consumption season continues, demand from downstream sectors including aluminum sheet, strip & foil and aluminum wires & cables has formed effective support. The domestic liquid aluminum ratio edged up moderately, rising by 1.7 percentage points month-on-month to 75.3% in April. The overall performance was slightly below early-month expectations, mainly dragged by weaker-than-anticipated orders for aluminum profiles. Based on SMM’s liquid aluminum ratio calculation data, domestic primary aluminum ingot output in April dropped by 3.4% year-on-year and 9.0% month-on-month.

Capacity Changes: As of late April, China’s commissioned primary aluminum capacity surveyed by SMM stood at approximately 46.209 million tons, showing no month-on-month changes.

Output Forecast: In May 2026, the liquid aluminum production ratio among domestic primary aluminum producers will operate in a differentiated pattern. Overall, with the recovery of overseas market demand, export orders for domestic aluminum fabricated products are expected to keep improving, supporting a mild rebound in the liquid aluminum ratio. comprehensively, the liquid aluminum ratio is projected to increase by 0.5 percentage points to 75.8%.