[SMM Analysis]Cobalt Market Trends Diverge: Metal Rebounds, Intermediate Falls, Sulfate Stabilizes

Refined Cobalt:
Spot refined cobalt prices stopped falling and rebounded this week. Supply side, refined cobalt prices climbed to 420,000 yuan/mt in the second half of the week. Major smelters raised ex-factory prices, while other smelters mostly offered limited volumes at parity. Traders maintained spot-futures price spreads at parity to a premium of 10,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, overall changes were relatively small. Downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises continued small-batch, high-frequency purchasing as needed, strictly controlling inventory risks. This round of price increases was mainly driven by continuous inventory drawdown on electronic trading platforms and announcements of production cuts by MHP miners, with bullish sentiment warming up. However, after refined cobalt prices rebounded, the metal price spread with low-priced cobalt salts narrowed, and enterprises' willingness to reverse-dissolve may pull back somewhat. Short-term market prices are expected to move sideways.

Cobalt Intermediate Products:
Cobalt intermediate product prices pulled back slightly this week. Supply side, most suppliers remained relatively optimistic about the market outlook, holding offers above $26/lb. A small volume of low-priced cargoes traded mid-week, putting pressure on prices. Demand side, overall changes were limited. Constrained by cobalt salts struggling to catch up, the market only maintained sporadic rigid-demand purchases. On the shipping front, DRC cobalt intermediate product cargoes remained stranded at South African ports and in overland transit. Only a few miners completed small-batch vessel bookings in April, with arrivals expected from May to June. Affected by tight African shipping capacity, the remaining large-volume cargoes may be delayed to July for concentrated arrivals. Going forward, as downstream orders gradually materialize and restocking demand is released, cobalt intermediate product prices still have room for upward recovery.

Cobalt Sulphate:
Spot cobalt sulphate prices gradually stabilized this week. Supply side, mainstream brand offers remained stable at 93,000-96,000 yuan/mt. After refined cobalt prices rose, some smelters that had previously offered discounts to facilitate shipments raised their offers, and low-priced cargoes at 90,000 yuan/mt diminished. Demand side, ahead of the Labour Day holiday, most downstream enterprises remained on the sidelines, primarily consuming their own inventory, with only small volumes of rigid-demand purchases of low-priced cargoes on an opportunistic basis. In terms of production schedules, both ternary and LCO producers' May production plans showed recovery and incremental growth. As purchasing demand gradually recovers going forward, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to see a recovery rebound.