[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel Prices Rebounded Sharply on March 25, as the US Was Considering Pushing for a One-Month Ceasefire

SMM Nickel News, March 25:

Macro and market news:

(1) The US government proposed to Iran, via Pakistan, a conflict-ending plan containing 15 conditions, covering the nuclear program, missile capabilities, and regional issues. The US side is considering pushing for a one-month ceasefire to facilitate further negotiations on the above terms.

(2) The central bank announced that, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on March 25, 2026, with a one-year tenor, using a fixed-quantity, interest-rate tender, and multiple-price allotment method.

Spot market:

On March 25, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel rose by 1,650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,150 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel were quoted at -400-400 yuan/mt.

Futures market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) surged in a straight line after opening flat in the morning session, then dropped back slightly, and closed the morning session at 135,250 yuan/mt, up 0.42%.

Current nickel prices are in a stage of intense tug-of-war between macro headwinds and supply risks. Short term, tighter Indonesian RKAB quotas, continuously rising ore prices, and the risk of sulfur supply disruptions have formed a solid floor below, but high inventory and the relatively slow recovery in end-use demand still constrained upside room. The core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to be 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt in the short term.