March Alumina Daily Output Falls M-o-M April New Capacity Combined with Import Shock Keeps Oversupply Pressure High

SMM, March 31 –

In March 2026, China's metallurgical-grade alumina output rose 10.56% month-on-month but fell 3.33% year-on-year. From a capacity perspective, as of the end of March, the national installed capacity stood at approximately 113.22 million tonnes, with some growth driven by the gradual commissioning of new alumina projects in Guangxi. However, operating capacity declined 2.1% month-on-month and 8.7% year-on-year. Although new projects were brought online, they were still in trial production at the end of March and did not contribute effective output, leading to a decline in the overall operating rate.

Looking at output structure, total production in March increased from February, but average daily output declined. The main reasons are: on one hand, several enterprises in Guizhou and Guangxi carried out various levels of maintenance; among them, one Guizhou-based company shut down part of its production lines due to operational pressure, significantly lowering the operating rate in southern China. On the other hand, northern regions such as Henan and Shandong saw relatively stable operations, mainly fulfilling long-term contract deliveries. In Shanxi, some enterprises continued upgrading their production lines, causing a slight decline in the operating rate. These factors combined led to a month-on-month drop in average daily output in March.

Looking ahead to April, the oversupply pattern in the alumina market is expected to persist. First, newly added capacity in Guangxi and Chongqing will be gradually released, driving overall output higher and intensifying competition within the industry. Second, attention should be paid to the indirect impact of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East: some overseas alumina originally destined for the Middle East has been forced to be re-exported to China, resulting in an unexpected increase in China's imported alumina volume. This will likely impact the domestic market and may restrain the release of domestic production capacity. Based on a comprehensive assessment, China's operating alumina capacity in April 2026 is expected to be around 86.63 million tonnes.