Maintenance Ended, April Steel Mill Hot-Rolled Coil Production Schedule Rose MoM!

• SMM Cold-Rolled Production Schedule: Steel Mills’ Daily Average Cold-Rolled Production Schedule in April Fell 0.6% MoM

According to SMM’s latest tracking, the total planned volume of cold-rolled commercial material for this month at 31 mainstream cold-rolled coil steel mills was 4.2118 million mt, down 164,600 mt from the actual cold-rolled commercial material production in the previous month, a decline of 3.8%.

In daily average terms, as April had one fewer day than March, the daily average cold-rolled commercial material production schedule in April was 140,400 mt, down 0.6% MoM from the previous month’s daily average actual cold-rolled commercial material production.

• SMM HRC Production Schedule: April HRC Production Schedule Up 5% MoM, Daily Average Up 9%

According to SMM's latest tracking, the total planned volume of HRC commercial material for this month at 39 mainstream HRC steel mills was 13.448 million mt, up 635,500 mt from the actual HRC commercial material production last month, an increase of 5.0%.
On a daily average basis, as April had one fewer day than March, the daily average scheduled production of HRC commercial material in April was 448,300 mt, up 8.5% MoM from the actual daily average production last month.

In March, blast furnaces or rolling lines at multiple steel mills in northeast China, north China, east China, and central and western China underwent maintenance. Coupled with the impact of environmental protection-driven production restrictions, some steel mills operated at reduced capacity. As maintenance concluded and production gradually resumed, hot-rolled coil production at steel mills rebounded markedly in April.

Summary: In April, the total production schedule for steel mills’ hot-rolled commercial flat products increased MoM, and as April has fewer days than March, the increase in daily average production scheduling was more pronounced.
Demand side, according to the latest SMM data, apparent demand for hot-rolled coil is currently below the level seen in the same period last year. As supply rebounds in April, demand absorption during the “Silver April” season will face significant challenges. Coupled with the backdrop of ongoing conflicts outside China, sheets & plates exports are under pressure, which will further exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance in China’s hot-rolled coil market.
Overall, market expectations are that the marginal impact of external factors on ferrous metals may weaken, while the cost side will face greater difficulty in breaking further to the upside. The trading center will gradually return to the fundamentals of the ferrous industrial chain. If downstream demand absorption is weak and inventory continues to decline only slowly, hot-rolled coil prices are expected to move sideways before trending weaker.