Capstone Copper Achieves Record Quarterly Production; Overnight LME Copper and SHFE Copper Extend Declines [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Wednesday, March 4, 2026
Futures: Overnight LME copper opened at $12,843/mt, fluctuated downward early in the session to a low of $12,722/mt, then rose in steps and climbed to $12,987/mt near the close, finally settling at $12,964.5/mt, down 0.92%. Trading volume reached 40,500 lots, and open interest reached 307,000 lots, down 4,847 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position reductions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2704 contract opened at 100,530 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of 100,200 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the center of copper prices gradually moved higher and hit a high of 101,530 yuan/mt near the close, finally settling at 101,330 yuan/mt, down 1.05%. Trading volume reached 92,000 lots, and open interest reached 194,000 lots, down 3,792 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position reductions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On March 2 (Monday), Canada’s Capstone Copper said on Monday that its Q4 revenue hit a record high, beating analysts’ expectations. The company’s adjusted Q4 EBITDA fell short of analysts’ expectations, despite record copper production. The company’s Q4 2025 copper production reached a record high, driven by improved operations at the Mantoverde and Mantos Blancos mines. Capstone Copper expected 2026 copper production to be 200,000-230,000 mt. It expected 2026 C1 cash costs to be $2.45-2.75 per pound.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: In the early session on March 3, the SHFE copper 2603 contract formed a “V” shape, opening at 102,350 yuan/mt. After the open, prices fluctuated between 102,250 yuan/mt and 102,450 yuan/mt, then fell rapidly to a low of 101,560 yuan/mt. After stabilizing, prices began to rise gradually, closing at 102,430 yuan/mt. The contango price spread between futures contracts for the next month ranged from 360 yuan/mt to 250 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper in the current month ranged from a loss of 560 yuan/mt to 370 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, Shanghai spot copper spot discounts were expected to continue a slight recovery, but with limited room. During the second trading session intraday, Shanghai spot copper premiums gradually stabilized. Suppliers made no major price adjustments; only discount quotes for non-registered copper dropped slightly, indicating stronger willingness among suppliers to hold prices firm, while downstream acceptance of current price levels improved gradually, and procurement sentiment remained steady. From the market structure perspective, the next-month C price spread narrowed slightly, and suppliers’ willingness to ship to delivery warehouse may have declined. Supply side, domestic copper and previously price-locked imported cargo continued to arrive, and with social inventory at a high level, overall circulating supply in the market remained ample. Demand side, downstream enterprises continued to advance work and production resumptions, and procurement sentiment rebounded MoM, but the overall recovery pace remained slow, making it difficult to provide strong support for premiums. Overall, spot premiums recovered slowly, but upside resistance remained.
(2) Guangdong: On March 3, Guangdong spot #1 copper cathode prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 260 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 320 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong spot #1 copper cathode was 102,145 yuan/mt, down 145 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,985 yuan/mt, up 130 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, the decline in copper prices stimulated downstream restocking, spot premiums rose, and transactions improved.
(3) Imported copper: On March 3, the average warrant price was flat from the previous trading day; the average B/L price was flat from the previous trading day; the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was flat from the previous trading day, with offers referencing cargoes arriving in mid-to-late March.
(4) Secondary copper: On March 3, the futures closing price at 11:30 was 102,430 yuan/mt, down 420 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premiums stood at -175 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On March 3, copper scrap prices fell 500 yuan/mt MoM. The average price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 90,600 yuan/mt, down 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,695 yuan/mt, up 145 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 785 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, copper prices pulled back notably under the influence of overseas macro events. Scrap-derived copper anode enterprises were active in procurement, while copper scrap suppliers, to reduce inventory pressure, were also actively shipping, with active intraday trading.
Prices: On the macro front, the situation in Iran continued to escalate, military brinkmanship among parties intensified, and the US Senate sought to curb Trump’s war powers. The market worried that tensions in the Middle East would further push up inflation expectations, driving the US dollar index to close higher, which was bearish for copper prices. Affected by this, the US Fed also became more cautious about the outlook for interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, on the supply side, domestic copper and previously price-locked imported cargoes continued to arrive, and with social inventory at high levels, market supply remained ample. On the demand side, downstream enterprises steadily advanced work and production resumptions, and procurement sentiment rebounded, but the overall pace of recovery remained relatively slow. Overall, macro bearish pressure had not eased, and fundamental support was relatively weak; copper prices were expected to extend their decline today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]