Downstream Fully Resumes Production Market Activity Warms Up [SMM North China Spot Copper]

According to data, China's total imports of recycled copper raw materials reached 2.34 million physical tons in 2025, up 3.96% year-on-year from 2.25 million physical tons in 2024. However, the source structure shifted markedly. Among the top five supplier countries, imports from the United States plunged 67.88% year-on-year amid ongoing China-US trade tensions, while imports from Malaysia fell 32.61% due to tightening scrap import policies. Offsetting these declines, imports from Thailand surged 88.58%, and those from Japan and South Korea rose 32.96% and 32.95% respectively, driving a continued increase in Asia's overall share of supply.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the discount for spot copper is expected to continue its slow recovery, though the room for improvement remains limited.Intraday trends showed spot premiums stabilizing, with traders holding firm on pricing and only non-registered copper discounts narrowing slightly. Downstream acceptance is gradually improving.The narrowing month spread may reduce warrant delivery interest. Supply remains ample due to sustained arrivals of domestic and imported copper, alongside high social inventories. Downstream operations are recovering, but demand growth is too slow to significantly boost premiums.In short, the discount is slowly correcting, but upward momentum is weak.

[Shanghai Spot Copper] For tomorrow, Shanghai spot copper discounts are expected to continue a modest recovery trend, but the room for improvement is limited. During the second trading session of the day, spot premiums and discounts for SHFE copper gradually stabilized, with suppliers making no significant price adjustments. Only non-registered copper discount quotes dropped slightly, indicating an increased willingness among suppliers to hold prices firm. Meanwhile, downstream acceptance of current prices has been gradually improving, and buying and selling sentiment remains stable. In terms of market structure, the price spread between futures contracts for the next month narrowed slightly, suggesting that suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses may have decreased. On the supply side, domestic copper and previously locked-price imported sources continue to arrive, coupled with high social inventory, resulting in an overall ample supply of circulating goods. On the demand side, downstream enterprises are steadily resuming production, and buying and selling sentiment has rebounded MoM, but the overall pace of recovery remains slow, making it difficult to provide strong support for premiums and discounts. Overall, while spot premiums and discounts are slowly recovering, there are still upward resistance.