SHFE Tin Contract Traded Sideways Around the 370,000 Threshold, with Market Sentiment Remaining Predominantly Cautious Ahead of the Interest Rate Cut Decision [SMM Tin Commentary]

On March 18, 2026, the most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 370,000 yuan/mt, down 2.59%. On the LME side, three-month tin was last at $46,830/mt, slightly down 0.04%. SHFE and LME were both under pressure from macro factors and, after a continued recent decline, traded in consolidation around 370,000 yuan/mt.

On the macro front, the market focus this week centered on the US Fed’s March policy meeting. Affected by the escalation in the Middle East situation, energy price volatility intensifies, and US inflation faced a new round of upward pressure, leading market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut this year to be pushed back significantly. The market expects the first rate cut may be delayed until after September, while expectations for the total number of rate cuts this year have converged to fewer than one, with even the possibility of rate hikes entering discussion. Regarding tonight’s meeting, there were three key points of focus: first, whether the policy statement will remove wording implying that the next move would be a rate cut; if revised, it would mark the first official confirmation of the end of the easing cycle; second, changes in the dot plot—last December, 12 officials still expected rate cuts within the year, but now only three officials need to change their stance for the median dot plot forecast to fall to “zero rate cuts”; third, how Powell’s press conference will interpret the dual risks of inflation and growth.

The US Fed currently faced a dual dilemma. On one hand, the oil shock brought by the Iran war may push up inflation, which has remained above target for five consecutive years. On the other hand, if the conflict expands, the risk of slower economic growth was also building. This uncertainty made it difficult for the US Fed to make decisive decisions, and market sentiment remained generally cautious ahead of the policy meeting. The US dollar index rose firmly above the 100 mark to a 10-month high, placing broad pressure on US dollar-denominated base metals.

Today’s market trading atmosphere was moderate. Since prices rose rapidly last December, the industry chain has remained under funding pressure, and most enterprises have strictly controlled the pace of order follow-up. When futures moved lower in February, some downstream enterprises had already entered a holiday-like state early because they “did not dare buy raw materials and could not take orders.” Coupled with relatively limited spot circulation in the market, overall actual trading volume was limited. After returning from the holiday, futures began to decline after fluctuations. As prices fell into the 370,000-yuan range this week, most enterprises showed some release in willingness to follow up. At present, traders’ quotations mostly moved with the market. In Shanghai, due to limited spot circulation, spot premiums were relatively high. Current daily SHFE inventory destocking was moderate, and continued attention should be paid to subsequent inventory turnover.

Tin prices are expected to fluctuate overall in the 360,000-390,000 yuan/mt range this month, with focus on tonight’s US Fed developments, subsequent market cargo circulation, and the actual pace of follow-up in end-use demand.