Tin Prices Declined Under Macro Pressure, Stimulating Transactions, While Destocking of Visible Inventory May Provide Support [SMM Tin Brief Review]

On March 23, 2026, SHFE and LME were affected by evolving macro developments, with overall sentiment tense and the nonferrous sector under pressure. The most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuated in the doldrums in the morning session, then fell rapidly after the afternoon open, closing at 328,300 yuan/mt, down 4.37. On the LME, three-month tin also weakened in tandem, last quoted at $41,515/mt, down 3.09.

On the macro front, US Fed rate expectations reversed. Federal funds futures data showed that the probability of at least a 25-basis-point increase in the benchmark rate after the October FOMC meeting had risen to 35, while a month earlier the market still expected a 35 probability of a 50-basis-point interest rate cut. The US two-year Treasury yield returned above 3.9, hitting its highest level since July, fully reversing the decline previously caused by weak employment data. Market views suggested that the US two-year Treasury yield had decoupled from the federal funds rate, and bets on further rate hikes within the year were heating up. Expectations for a stronger US dollar will continue to weigh on the US dollar-denominated nonferrous metals sector.

Today, trading sentiment in the spot market was relatively active. After prices fell into the low 320,000 range, most downstream enterprises followed on dips. Inventory side, SHFE tin warrant had previously held at around 11,000 mt, and destocking totaled 508 mt today, bringing inventory down to 8,978 mt.

Downstream side, in 2026, soaring memory prices sharply increased smartphone costs, and global production is expected to decline about 10 year on year to 1.135 billion units. If memory prices continue to rise, the contraction will become more pronounced. Tin chemicals and tinplate, the second- and third-largest downstream consumption sectors for tin, were respectively affected by the real estate and food packaging industries: housing completion rates remained low, providing limited support to pipe consumption; food packaging demand was steady but lacked incremental growth, and the implementation of the UK's anti-dumping policy on Chinese tinplate may further affect some exports.

Short term, after the continuous decline in prices, recovering transactions and inventory drawdowns may provide some bottom support for tin prices. The price center is expected to edge lower within a narrow range before shifting to rangebound movement. Going forward, close attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment, demand trends, and the pace of social inventory digestion.