China to Halt Sulfuric Acid Exports in May, Affecting Metals and Fertilizer Sectors Amid Iran War Disruptions

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Alcoa is facing regulatory pressure at its Wagerup alumina refinery in Western Australia, highlighting risks to upstream aluminum supply. Mercury emissions linked directly to bauxite refining which have nearly doubled since 2022 to ~400kg in 2025, driven by higher alumina production, ore quality, and equipment issues. While regulators say emissions remain within acceptable limits, environmental groups have appealed the refinery’s license, raising the risk of tighter operating conditions for a key alumina asset.

[Solid Geopolitical Support, Aluminum Prices Fluctuate at Highs] Overall, from a macro perspective, restricted strait transit and risks of conflict escalation resonated with fundamental supply-side hard damage and low global inventory, jointly providing strong bottom support for aluminum prices. However, weak interest rate cut expectations, above-expectation aluminum ingot inventory buildup in China, and adverse expectations on consumption and inflation driven by recent high fluctuations in oil prices all notably weighed on the upside room for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at highs.

Amid the current turmoil in the Middle East and soaring energy prices, US consumer confidence deteriorated significantly. The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April came in at 47.6, a sharp decline from 53.3 in March, hitting a record low. Meanwhile, the preliminary 1-year inflation expectations reached 4.8%, surging 1 percentage point from March, marking the largest increase in nearly a year.